Sat, Oct 16 2021
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Spartan Stadium
San Jose, CA
·
Turf
·
30,456 cap
San Diego State✈ 412 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
San Diego State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
San Diego State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
San Diego State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
San Diego State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
San Diego State -10
O/U 41.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → San Diego State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
San Diego State 2021 Schedule
San Diego State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | San Diego State vs New Mexico State | -31.0W28–10 | 51.0 | W28–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | San Diego State at Arizona | +1.5W38–14 | 46.0 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | San Diego State vs Utah | +8.0W33–31 | 42.5 | W33–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | San Diego State vs Towson | -23.0W48–21 | 41.0 | W48–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | San Diego State vs New Mexico | -19.5W31–7 | 42.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/15 | San Diego State at San José State | -10.0W19–13 | 41.0 | W19–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | San Diego State at Air Force | +3.0W20–14 | 38.5 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | San Diego State vs Fresno State | +2.0L20–30 | 43.5 | L20–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | San Diego State at Hawai'i | -7.0W17–10 | 45.0 | W17–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | San Diego State vs Nevada | -2.5W23–21 | 45.0 | W23–21 | U | N |
| Fri 11/19 | San Diego State at UNLV | -11.0W28–20 | 41.0 | W28–20 | O | N |
| Fri 11/26 | San Diego State vs Boise State | +3.0W27–16 | 44.0 | W27–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/4 | San Diego State vs Utah State | -6.5L13–46 | 49.5 | L13–46 | O | N |
| Tue 12/21 | San Diego State vs UTSA | -3.0W38–24 | 48.0 | W38–24 | O | Y |
San José State 2021 Schedule
San José State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/28 | San José State vs Southern Utah | -28.0W45–14 | 57.5 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/4 | San José State at USC | +13.5L7–30 | 61.0 | L7–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sun 9/19 | San José State at Hawai'i | -8.0W17–13 | 62.5 | W17–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | San José State at Western Michigan | +2.5L3–23 | 61.5 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | San José State vs New Mexico State | -25.5W37–31 | 51.5 | W37–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | San José State at Colorado State | +3.5L14–32 | 44.0 | L14–32 | O | N |
| Fri 10/15 | San José State vs San Diego State | +10.0L13–19 | 41.0 | L13–19 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/21 | San José State at UNLV | -6.0W27–20 | 44.0 | W27–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | San José State vs Wyoming | -3.0W27–21 | 40.0 | W27–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | San José State at Nevada | +11.5L24–27 | 55.5 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | San José State vs Utah State | -4.5L17–48 | 58.0 | L17–48 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/25 | San José State vs Fresno State | +7.0L9–40 | 52.5 | L9–40 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San Diego State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
San Diego State Edge
San Diego State +0.35
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
San Diego State Edge
San Diego State +36.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on San Diego State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
San Diego State
Brady Hoke #1
7–4 (64%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jeff Hecklinski
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kurt Mattix
Yr 1
#1
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
17–31 (35%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Kevin McGiven
Yr 1
#1
DC
Derrick Odum
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

