San Diego State at San José State Week 7 College Football Matchup San Diego State at San José State Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 16 2021 · Week 7 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium San Jose, CA · Turf · 30,456 cap
San Diego State✈ 412 miSame TZ
19 13
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San Diego State
26
SJSU +10
San José State
18
P&R Line San Diego State -7.5
P&R Total O/U 43.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas San Diego State -10 · O/U 41.0
Matchup Prediction
San Diego State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor San Diego State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
San Diego State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
San Diego State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
San Diego State -10
O/U 41.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → San Diego State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
San Diego State 2021 Schedule
San Diego State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4San Diego State vs New Mexico State-31.0W28–1051.0W28–10UN
Sat 9/11San Diego State at Arizona+1.5W38–1446.0W38–14OY
Sat 9/18San Diego State vs Utah+8.0W33–3142.5W33–31OY
Sat 9/25San Diego State vs Towson-23.0W48–2141.0W48–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/9San Diego State vs New Mexico-19.5W31–742.5W31–7UY
Fri 10/15San Diego State at San José State-10.0W19–1341.0W19–13UN
Sat 10/23San Diego State at Air Force+3.0W20–1438.5W20–14UY
Sat 10/30San Diego State vs Fresno State+2.0L20–3043.5L20–30ON
Sat 11/6San Diego State at Hawai'i-7.0W17–1045.0W17–10UN
Sat 11/13San Diego State vs Nevada-2.5W23–2145.0W23–21UN
Fri 11/19San Diego State at UNLV-11.0W28–2041.0W28–20ON
Fri 11/26San Diego State vs Boise State+3.0W27–1644.0W27–16UY
Sat 12/4San Diego State vs Utah State-6.5L13–4649.5L13–46ON
Tue 12/21San Diego State vs UTSA-3.0W38–2448.0W38–24OY
San José State 2021 Schedule
San José State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/28San José State vs Southern Utah-28.0W45–1457.5W45–14OY
Sat 9/4San José State at USC+13.5L7–3061.0L7–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sun 9/19San José State at Hawai'i-8.0W17–1362.5W17–13UN
Sat 9/25San José State at Western Michigan+2.5L3–2361.5L3–23UN
Sat 10/2San José State vs New Mexico State-25.5W37–3151.5W37–31ON
Sat 10/9San José State at Colorado State+3.5L14–3244.0L14–32ON
Fri 10/15San José State vs San Diego State+10.0L13–1941.0L13–19UY
Thu 10/21San José State at UNLV-6.0W27–2044.0W27–20OY
Sat 10/30San José State vs Wyoming-3.0W27–2140.0W27–21OY
Sat 11/6San José State at Nevada+11.5L24–2755.5L24–27UY
Sat 11/13San José State vs Utah State-4.5L17–4858.0L17–48ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/25San José State vs Fresno State+7.0L9–4052.5L9–40UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
San Diego State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San Diego State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San Diego State
+0.303
San José State
+0.172
San Diego State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State
+0.408
San José State
+0.326
San Diego State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San Diego State
0.197
San José State
0.211
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San José State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State
+7.327
San José State
+6.555
San Diego State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San Diego State
+0.821
San José State
+0.755
San Diego State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San Diego State
69.5
San José State
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San Diego State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
San Diego State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San Diego State
2.6
San José State
-19.7
Offense Rating
San Diego State
15.6
San José State
6.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San Diego State
13.0
San José State
26.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? San Diego State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San Diego State #58
0.75
San José State #116
0.40
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #61
0.25
San José State #85
1.40
San Diego State +0.35
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San Diego State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San Diego State #1
80.9
San José State #1
44.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #22
12.2
San José State #91
48.0
San Diego State +36.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on San Diego State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San Diego State
Brady Hoke #1
7–4 (64%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Jeff Hecklinski Yr 1 #1
DC Kurt Mattix Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
17–31 (35%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Kevin McGiven Yr 1 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself