UTSA at San Diego State Week 1 College Football Matchup UTSA at San Diego State Matchup - Week 1
Wed, Dec 22 2021 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Toyota Stadium Frisco, TX · Turf · 20,500 cap
UTSA✈ 275 miSame TZ San Diego State✈ 1,174 mi+2 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
24 38
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
UTSA
25
San Diego State
27
P&R Line San Diego State -2
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 86 High
Vegas San Diego State -3 · O/U 48.0
Matchup Prediction
UTSA has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor UTSA entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
UTSA wins
Solid
Game Control
49.4%
UTSA wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
San Diego State -3
O/U 48.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → San Diego State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 San Diego State 3rd straight Home Game
UTSA 2021 Schedule
UTSA's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4UTSA at Illinois+4.5W37–3052.0W37–30OY
Sat 9/11UTSA vs Lamar-38.0W54–065.0W54–0UY
Sat 9/18UTSA vs Middle Tennessee-11.5W27–1360.0W27–13UY
Sat 9/25UTSA at Memphis+3.0W31–2866.5W31–28UY
Sat 10/2UTSA vs UNLV-21.5W24–1755.5W24–17UN
Sat 10/9UTSA at Western Kentucky+3.5W52–4671.0W52–46OY
Sat 10/16UTSA vs Rice-17.0W45–053.0W45–0UY
Sat 10/23UTSA at Louisiana Tech-5.5W45–1659.5W45–16OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/6UTSA at UTEP-12.0W44–2353.5W44–23OY
Sat 11/13UTSA vs Southern Miss-32.5W27–1754.0W27–17UN
Sat 11/20UTSA vs UAB-3.5W34–3154.0W34–31ON
Sat 11/27UTSA at North Texas-8.5L23–4560.0L23–45ON
Fri 12/3UTSA vs Western Kentucky+3.0W49–4174.5W49–41OY
Tue 12/21UTSA vs San Diego State+3.0L24–3848.0L24–38ON
San Diego State 2021 Schedule
San Diego State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4San Diego State vs New Mexico State-31.0W28–1051.0W28–10UN
Sat 9/11San Diego State at Arizona+1.5W38–1446.0W38–14OY
Sat 9/18San Diego State vs Utah+8.0W33–3142.5W33–31OY
Sat 9/25San Diego State vs Towson-23.0W48–2141.0W48–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/9San Diego State vs New Mexico-19.5W31–742.5W31–7UY
Fri 10/15San Diego State at San José State-10.0W19–1341.0W19–13UN
Sat 10/23San Diego State at Air Force+3.0W20–1438.5W20–14UY
Sat 10/30San Diego State vs Fresno State+2.0L20–3043.5L20–30ON
Sat 11/6San Diego State at Hawai'i-7.0W17–1045.0W17–10UN
Sat 11/13San Diego State vs Nevada-2.5W23–2145.0W23–21UN
Fri 11/19San Diego State at UNLV-11.0W28–2041.0W28–20ON
Fri 11/26San Diego State vs Boise State+3.0W27–1644.0W27–16UY
Sat 12/4San Diego State vs Utah State-6.5L13–4649.5L13–46ON
Tue 12/21San Diego State vs UTSA-3.0W38–2448.0W38–24OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
San Diego State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San Diego State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
UTSA
+0.334
San Diego State
+0.363
San Diego State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
UTSA
+0.576
San Diego State
+0.523
UTSA Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
UTSA
0.183
San Diego State
0.197
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San Diego State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
UTSA
+7.831
San Diego State
+7.471
UTSA Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
UTSA
+0.812
San Diego State
+0.825
San Diego State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
UTSA
69.5
San Diego State
69.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Even
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
San Diego State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
UTSA
0.7
San Diego State
3.6
Offense Rating
UTSA
16.4
San Diego State
16.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
UTSA
15.7
San Diego State
13.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? UTSA Edge
Avg sequences created per game
UTSA #32
1.77
San Diego State #58
0.75
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
UTSA #24
0.69
San Diego State #61
0.92
UTSA +1.02
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? UTSA Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
UTSA #1
65.1
San Diego State #1
63.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
UTSA #21
21.0
San Diego State #22
24.6
UTSA +1.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on UTSA, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
UTSA
Jeff Traylor #1
10–5 (67%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Barry Lunney Jr. Yr 1 #1
DC Jess Loepp / Rod Wright Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
San Diego State
Brady Hoke #1
7–4 (64%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Jeff Hecklinski Yr 1 #1
DC Kurt Mattix Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself