Air Force at Louisville Week 1 College Football Matchup Air Force at Louisville Matchup - Week 1
Tue, Dec 28 2021 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Gerald J. Ford Stadium University Park, TX · Turf · 32,000 cap
Air Force✈ 619 mi+1 hr TZ Louisville✈ 721 mi-1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
31 28
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Air Force
27
LOU +1
Louisville
28
P&R Line Louisville -0.5
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Air Force -1 · O/U 55.0
Matchup Prediction
Air Force has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Air Force entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Air Force wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Air Force wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Air Force -1
O/U 55.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Air Force · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Louisville 2nd straight Home Game
Air Force 2021 Schedule
Air Force's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Air Force vs Lafayette-40.5W35–1449.5W35–14UN
Sat 9/11Air Force at Navy-6.0W23–340.0W23–3UY
Sat 9/18Air Force vs Utah State-9.0L45–4954.0L45–49ON
Sat 9/25Air Force vs Florida Atlantic-3.5W31–754.0W31–7UY
Sat 10/2Air Force at New Mexico-11.5W38–1046.0W38–10OY
Sat 10/9Air Force vs Wyoming-5.5W24–1446.5W24–14UY
Sat 10/16Air Force at Boise State+3.0W24–1752.0W24–17UY
Sat 10/23Air Force vs San Diego State-3.0L14–2038.5L14–20UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/6Air Force vs Army-2.5L14–2137.5L14–21UN
Sat 11/13Air Force at Colorado State-3.0W35–2145.0W35–21OY
Fri 11/19Air Force at Nevada-1.5W41–3953.5W41–39OY
Fri 11/26Air Force vs UNLV-18.5W48–1449.5W48–14OY
Tue 12/28Air Force vs Louisville-1.0W31–2855.0W31–28OY
Louisville 2021 Schedule
Louisville's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/6Louisville vs Ole Miss+9.0L24–4374.5L24–43UN
Sat 9/11Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky-30.0W30–362.5W30–3UN
Fri 9/17Louisville vs UCF+7.0W42–3567.5W42–35OY
Sat 9/25Louisville at Florida State+1.5W31–2361.0W31–23UY
Sat 10/2Louisville at Wake Forest+7.0L34–3764.5L34–37OY
Sat 10/9Louisville vs Virginia-2.5L33–3469.5L33–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/23Louisville vs Boston College-4.0W28–1457.5W28–14UY
Sat 10/30Louisville at NC State+6.0L13–2857.0L13–28UN
Sat 11/6Louisville vs Clemson+3.5L24–3046.0L24–30ON
Sat 11/13Louisville vs Syracuse-3.0W41–355.5W41–3UY
Thu 11/18Louisville at Duke-20.0W62–2260.0W62–22OY
Sat 11/27Louisville vs Kentucky-3.0L21–5258.0L21–52ON
Tue 12/28Louisville vs Air Force+1.0L28–3155.0L28–31ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Air Force PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Air Force
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Air Force
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Air Force
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Air Force
+0.520
Louisville
+0.499
Air Force Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Air Force
+0.767
Louisville
+0.636
Air Force Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Air Force
0.201
Louisville
0.166
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Air Force Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Air Force
+8.527
Louisville
+8.096
Air Force Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Air Force
+0.879
Louisville
+0.816
Air Force Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Air Force
69.8
Louisville
71.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Air Force Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Louisville Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Air Force
-5.2
Louisville
10.8
Offense Rating
Air Force
12.5
Louisville
22.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Air Force
17.7
Louisville
11.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Air Force Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Air Force #25
1.64
Louisville #37
1.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Air Force #20
0.64
Louisville #87
1.00
Air Force +0.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Air Force Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Air Force #1
71.3
Louisville #1
52.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Air Force #8
17.4
Louisville #50
30.6
Air Force +18.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Air Force with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
104–73 (59%) · Yr 15 at school
OC Mike Thiessen Yr 1 #1
DC John Rudzinski Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Louisville
Scott Satterfield #1
14–13 (52%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Scott Satterfield Yr 1 #1
DC Bryan Brown Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself