Tue, Dec 28 2021
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Gerald J. Ford Stadium
University Park, TX
·
Turf
·
32,000 cap
Air Force✈ 619 mi+1 hr TZ
Louisville✈ 721 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Air Force
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Air Force entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Air Force wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Air Force wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Air Force -1
O/U 55.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Air Force
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Air Force 2021 Schedule
Air Force's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Air Force vs Lafayette | -40.5W35–14 | 49.5 | W35–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Air Force at Navy | -6.0W23–3 | 40.0 | W23–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Air Force vs Utah State | -9.0L45–49 | 54.0 | L45–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Air Force vs Florida Atlantic | -3.5W31–7 | 54.0 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Air Force at New Mexico | -11.5W38–10 | 46.0 | W38–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Air Force vs Wyoming | -5.5W24–14 | 46.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Air Force at Boise State | +3.0W24–17 | 52.0 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Air Force vs San Diego State | -3.0L14–20 | 38.5 | L14–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | Air Force vs Army | -2.5L14–21 | 37.5 | L14–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Air Force at Colorado State | -3.0W35–21 | 45.0 | W35–21 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/19 | Air Force at Nevada | -1.5W41–39 | 53.5 | W41–39 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | Air Force vs UNLV | -18.5W48–14 | 49.5 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/28 | Air Force vs Louisville | -1.0W31–28 | 55.0 | W31–28 | O | Y |
Louisville 2021 Schedule
Louisville's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9/6 | Louisville vs Ole Miss | +9.0L24–43 | 74.5 | L24–43 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky | -30.0W30–3 | 62.5 | W30–3 | U | N |
| Fri 9/17 | Louisville vs UCF | +7.0W42–35 | 67.5 | W42–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Louisville at Florida State | +1.5W31–23 | 61.0 | W31–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Louisville at Wake Forest | +7.0L34–37 | 64.5 | L34–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Louisville vs Virginia | -2.5L33–34 | 69.5 | L33–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Louisville vs Boston College | -4.0W28–14 | 57.5 | W28–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Louisville at NC State | +6.0L13–28 | 57.0 | L13–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Louisville vs Clemson | +3.5L24–30 | 46.0 | L24–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Louisville vs Syracuse | -3.0W41–3 | 55.5 | W41–3 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/18 | Louisville at Duke | -20.0W62–22 | 60.0 | W62–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Louisville vs Kentucky | -3.0L21–52 | 58.0 | L21–52 | O | N |
| Tue 12/28 | Louisville vs Air Force | +1.0L28–31 | 55.0 | L28–31 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Air Force
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Air Force
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Air Force
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Air Force Edge
Air Force +0.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Air Force Edge
Air Force +18.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Air Force with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
104–73 (59%)
· Yr 15 at school
OC
Mike Thiessen
Yr 1
#1
DC
John Rudzinski
Yr 1
#1
Louisville
Scott Satterfield #1
14–13 (52%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Scott Satterfield
Yr 1
#1
DC
Bryan Brown
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

