San Diego State at UNLV Week 12 College Football Matchup San Diego State at UNLV Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 20 2021 · Week 12 · 🏟 Allegiant Stadium Las Vegas, NV · Turf · 65,000 cap
San Diego State✈ 2,694 miSame TZ
28 20
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San Diego State
32
UNLV
13
P&R Line San Diego State -19.5
P&R Total O/U 44.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas San Diego State -11 · O/U 41.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors UNLV, while Game Control favors San Diego State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
UNLV wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
San Diego State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
San Diego State -11
O/U 41.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → San Diego State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 UNLV 2nd straight Home Game
San Diego State 2021 Schedule
San Diego State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4San Diego State vs New Mexico State-31.0W28–1051.0W28–10UN
Sat 9/11San Diego State at Arizona+1.5W38–1446.0W38–14OY
Sat 9/18San Diego State vs Utah+8.0W33–3142.5W33–31OY
Sat 9/25San Diego State vs Towson-23.0W48–2141.0W48–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/9San Diego State vs New Mexico-19.5W31–742.5W31–7UY
Fri 10/15San Diego State at San José State-10.0W19–1341.0W19–13UN
Sat 10/23San Diego State at Air Force+3.0W20–1438.5W20–14UY
Sat 10/30San Diego State vs Fresno State+2.0L20–3043.5L20–30ON
Sat 11/6San Diego State at Hawai'i-7.0W17–1045.0W17–10UN
Sat 11/13San Diego State vs Nevada-2.5W23–2145.0W23–21UN
Fri 11/19San Diego State at UNLV-11.0W28–2041.0W28–20ON
Fri 11/26San Diego State vs Boise State+3.0W27–1644.0W27–16UY
Sat 12/4San Diego State vs Utah State-6.5L13–4649.5L13–46ON
Tue 12/21San Diego State vs UTSA-3.0W38–2448.0W38–24OY
UNLV 2021 Schedule
UNLV's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2UNLV vs Eastern Washington+2.0L33–3566.0L33–35OY
Sat 9/11UNLV at Arizona State+34.5L10–3755.5L10–37UY
Sat 9/18UNLV vs Iowa State+32.0L3–4853.0L3–48UN
Fri 9/24UNLV at Fresno State+30.0L30–3859.0L30–38OY
Sat 10/2UNLV at UTSA+21.5L17–2455.5L17–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16UNLV vs Utah State+7.5L24–2864.0L24–28UY
Thu 10/21UNLV vs San José State+6.0L20–2744.0L20–27ON
Fri 10/29UNLV at Nevada+19.0L20–5158.0L20–51ON
Sat 11/6UNLV at New Mexico+1.5W31–1745.0W31–17OY
Sat 11/13UNLV vs Hawai'i+3.5W27–1355.5W27–13UY
Fri 11/19UNLV vs San Diego State+11.0L20–2841.0L20–28OY
Fri 11/26UNLV at Air Force+18.5L14–4849.5L14–48ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
San Diego State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ San Diego State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ San Diego State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San Diego State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San Diego State
+0.400
UNLV
+0.203
San Diego State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State
+0.578
UNLV
+0.393
San Diego State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San Diego State
0.197
UNLV
0.184
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San Diego State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State
+7.830
UNLV
+7.594
San Diego State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San Diego State
+0.837
UNLV
+0.719
San Diego State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San Diego State
69.5
UNLV
72.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San Diego State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
San Diego State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San Diego State
3.6
UNLV
2.0
Offense Rating
San Diego State
16.6
UNLV
17.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San Diego State
13.0
UNLV
15.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? UNLV Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San Diego State #58
0.56
UNLV #67
0.78
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #61
0.56
UNLV #131
1.67
UNLV +0.22
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San Diego State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San Diego State #1
68.9
UNLV #1
23.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #22
19.6
UNLV #112
58.7
San Diego State +45.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UNLV
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
San Diego State
10.7 — 80.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
San Diego State won by 8
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San Diego State
Brady Hoke #1
7–4 (64%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Jeff Hecklinski Yr 1 #1
DC Kurt Mattix Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UNLV
Marcus Arroyo #1
0–9 (0%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Glenn Thomas Yr 1 #1
DC Peter Hansen Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself