Fri, Oct 22 2021
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Allegiant Stadium
Las Vegas, NV
·
Turf
·
65,000 cap
San José State✈ 2,767 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors UNLV,
while Game Control favors San José State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
UNLV wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
San José State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
San José State -6
O/U 44.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → San José State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
San José State 2021 Schedule
San José State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/28 | San José State vs Southern Utah | -28.0W45–14 | 57.5 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/4 | San José State at USC | +13.5L7–30 | 61.0 | L7–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sun 9/19 | San José State at Hawai'i | -8.0W17–13 | 62.5 | W17–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | San José State at Western Michigan | +2.5L3–23 | 61.5 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | San José State vs New Mexico State | -25.5W37–31 | 51.5 | W37–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | San José State at Colorado State | +3.5L14–32 | 44.0 | L14–32 | O | N |
| Fri 10/15 | San José State vs San Diego State | +10.0L13–19 | 41.0 | L13–19 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/21 | San José State at UNLV | -6.0W27–20 | 44.0 | W27–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | San José State vs Wyoming | -3.0W27–21 | 40.0 | W27–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | San José State at Nevada | +11.5L24–27 | 55.5 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | San José State vs Utah State | -4.5L17–48 | 58.0 | L17–48 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/25 | San José State vs Fresno State | +7.0L9–40 | 52.5 | L9–40 | U | N |
UNLV 2021 Schedule
UNLV's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | UNLV vs Eastern Washington | +2.0L33–35 | 66.0 | L33–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | UNLV at Arizona State | +34.5L10–37 | 55.5 | L10–37 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | UNLV vs Iowa State | +32.0L3–48 | 53.0 | L3–48 | U | N |
| Fri 9/24 | UNLV at Fresno State | +30.0L30–38 | 59.0 | L30–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | UNLV at UTSA | +21.5L17–24 | 55.5 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | UNLV vs Utah State | +7.5L24–28 | 64.0 | L24–28 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/21 | UNLV vs San José State | +6.0L20–27 | 44.0 | L20–27 | O | N |
| Fri 10/29 | UNLV at Nevada | +19.0L20–51 | 58.0 | L20–51 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | UNLV at New Mexico | +1.5W31–17 | 45.0 | W31–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | UNLV vs Hawai'i | +3.5W27–13 | 55.5 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/19 | UNLV vs San Diego State | +11.0L20–28 | 41.0 | L20–28 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | UNLV at Air Force | +18.5L14–48 | 49.5 | L14–48 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UNLV Edge
UNLV +0.47
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
San José State Edge
San José State +25.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
17–31 (35%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Kevin McGiven
Yr 1
#1
DC
Derrick Odum
Yr 1
#1
UNLV
Marcus Arroyo #1
0–9 (0%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Glenn Thomas
Yr 1
#1
DC
Peter Hansen
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓