Sat, Sep 4 2021
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Los Angeles, CA
·
Turf
·
93,607 cap
San José State✈ 304 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
USC -13.5
O/U 61.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → San José State
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
San José State 2021 Schedule
San José State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/28 | San José State vs Southern Utah | -28.0W45–14 | 57.5 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/4 | San José State at USC | +13.5L7–30 | 61.0 | L7–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sun 9/19 | San José State at Hawai'i | -8.0W17–13 | 62.5 | W17–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | San José State at Western Michigan | +2.5L3–23 | 61.5 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | San José State vs New Mexico State | -25.5W37–31 | 51.5 | W37–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | San José State at Colorado State | +3.5L14–32 | 44.0 | L14–32 | O | N |
| Fri 10/15 | San José State vs San Diego State | +10.0L13–19 | 41.0 | L13–19 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/21 | San José State at UNLV | -6.0W27–20 | 44.0 | W27–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | San José State vs Wyoming | -3.0W27–21 | 40.0 | W27–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | San José State at Nevada | +11.5L24–27 | 55.5 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | San José State vs Utah State | -4.5L17–48 | 58.0 | L17–48 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/25 | San José State vs Fresno State | +7.0L9–40 | 52.5 | L9–40 | U | N |
USC 2021 Schedule
USC's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | USC vs San José State | -13.5W30–7 | 61.0 | W30–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | USC vs Stanford | -17.0L28–42 | 53.0 | L28–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | USC at Washington State | -7.0W45–14 | 61.0 | W45–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | USC vs Oregon State | -11.0L27–45 | 62.5 | L27–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | USC at Colorado | -9.0W37–14 | 50.5 | W37–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | USC vs Utah | -3.0L26–42 | 52.5 | L26–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | USC at Notre Dame | +8.0L16–31 | 59.5 | L16–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | USC vs Arizona | -22.0W41–34 | 55.5 | W41–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | USC at Arizona State | +10.0L16–31 | 61.0 | L16–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | USC at California | -2.0 | 52.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/20 | USC vs UCLA | +4.5L33–62 | 66.5 | L33–62 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | USC vs BYU | +8.5L31–35 | 65.5 | L31–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/4 | USC at California | +4.5L14–24 | 57.5 | L14–24 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ San José State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
San José State Edge
San José State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
San José State Edge
San José State +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
USC
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
USC
95.1 — 3.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
USC won by 23
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on USC, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
17–31 (35%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Kevin McGiven
Yr 1
#1
DC
Derrick Odum
Yr 1
#1
USC
Donte Williams #1
1–0 (100%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Graham Harrell
Yr 1
#1
DC
Todd Orlando
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓