Sat, Oct 30 2021
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Spartan Stadium
San Jose, CA
·
Turf
·
30,456 cap
Wyoming✈ 912 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Wyoming
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Wyoming entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Wyoming wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Wyoming wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
San José State -3
O/U 40.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Wyoming
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Wyoming 2021 Schedule
Wyoming's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Wyoming vs Montana State | -19.0W19–16 | 45.0 | W19–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Wyoming at Northern Illinois | -7.0W50–43 | 44.0 | W50–43 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Wyoming vs Ball State | -6.5W45–12 | 53.5 | W45–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Wyoming at UConn | -31.5W24–22 | 53.5 | W24–22 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | Wyoming at Air Force | +5.5L14–24 | 46.5 | L14–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Wyoming vs Fresno State | +3.0L0–17 | 53.5 | L0–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Wyoming vs New Mexico | -20.0L3–14 | 41.0 | L3–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Wyoming at San José State | +3.0L21–27 | 40.0 | L21–27 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Wyoming vs Colorado State | +3.0W31–17 | 41.5 | W31–17 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/12 | Wyoming at Boise State | +14.0L13–23 | 49.0 | L13–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Wyoming at Utah State | +6.0W44–17 | 52.0 | W44–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Wyoming vs Hawai'i | -13.0L14–38 | 48.5 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Tue 12/21 | Wyoming vs Kent State | -3.0W52–38 | 61.0 | W52–38 | O | Y |
San José State 2021 Schedule
San José State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/28 | San José State vs Southern Utah | -28.0W45–14 | 57.5 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/4 | San José State at USC | +13.5L7–30 | 61.0 | L7–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sun 9/19 | San José State at Hawai'i | -8.0W17–13 | 62.5 | W17–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | San José State at Western Michigan | +2.5L3–23 | 61.5 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | San José State vs New Mexico State | -25.5W37–31 | 51.5 | W37–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | San José State at Colorado State | +3.5L14–32 | 44.0 | L14–32 | O | N |
| Fri 10/15 | San José State vs San Diego State | +10.0L13–19 | 41.0 | L13–19 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/21 | San José State at UNLV | -6.0W27–20 | 44.0 | W27–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | San José State vs Wyoming | -3.0W27–21 | 40.0 | W27–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | San José State at Nevada | +11.5L24–27 | 55.5 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | San José State vs Utah State | -4.5L17–48 | 58.0 | L17–48 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/25 | San José State vs Fresno State | +7.0L9–40 | 52.5 | L9–40 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Wyoming
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Wyoming Edge
Wyoming +0.10
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wyoming Edge
Wyoming +8.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
San José State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
San José State
74.2 — 9.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
San José State won by 6
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Wyoming. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Wyoming
Craig Bohl #1
41–44 (48%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Tim Polasek
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jay Sawvel
Yr 1
#1
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
17–31 (35%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Kevin McGiven
Yr 1
#1
DC
Derrick Odum
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓