Utah State at San José State Week 11 College Football Matchup Utah State at San José State Matchup - Week 11
Sun, Nov 14 2021 · Week 11 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium San Jose, CA · Turf · 30,456 cap
Utah State✈ 616 mi-1 hr TZ
48 17
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Utah State
27
San José State
28
P&R Line San José State -0.5
P&R Total O/U 56
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas San José State -4.5 · O/U 58.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Utah State, while Game Control favors San José State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Utah State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
San José State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
San José State -4.5
O/U 58.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Utah State 2nd straight Road Game
Utah State 2021 Schedule
Utah State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Utah State at Washington State+17.5W26–2366.5W26–23UY
Fri 9/10Utah State vs North Dakota-6.5W48–2453.5W48–24OY
Sat 9/18Utah State at Air Force+9.0W49–4554.0W49–45OY
Sat 9/25Utah State vs Boise State+9.5L3–2769.5L3–27UN
Fri 10/1Utah State vs BYU+9.0L20–3466.0L20–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Utah State at UNLV-7.5W28–2464.0W28–24UN
Fri 10/22Utah State vs Colorado State+3.0W26–2458.5W26–24UY
Sat 10/30Utah State vs Hawai'i-3.5W51–3166.0W51–31OY
Sat 11/6Utah State at New Mexico State-18.0W35–1372.0W35–13UY
Sat 11/13Utah State at San José State+4.5W48–1758.0W48–17OY
Sat 11/20Utah State vs Wyoming-6.0L17–4452.0L17–44ON
Fri 11/26Utah State at New Mexico-17.0W35–1048.0W35–10UY
Sat 12/4Utah State at San Diego State+6.5W46–1349.5W46–13OY
Sat 12/18Utah State vs Oregon State+7.0W24–1368.0W24–13UY
San José State 2021 Schedule
San José State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/28San José State vs Southern Utah-28.0W45–1457.5W45–14OY
Sat 9/4San José State at USC+13.5L7–3061.0L7–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sun 9/19San José State at Hawai'i-8.0W17–1362.5W17–13UN
Sat 9/25San José State at Western Michigan+2.5L3–2361.5L3–23UN
Sat 10/2San José State vs New Mexico State-25.5W37–3151.5W37–31ON
Sat 10/9San José State at Colorado State+3.5L14–3244.0L14–32ON
Fri 10/15San José State vs San Diego State+10.0L13–1941.0L13–19UY
Thu 10/21San José State at UNLV-6.0W27–2044.0W27–20OY
Sat 10/30San José State vs Wyoming-3.0W27–2140.0W27–21OY
Sat 11/6San José State at Nevada+11.5L24–2755.5L24–27UY
Sat 11/13San José State vs Utah State-4.5L17–4858.0L17–48ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/25San José State vs Fresno State+7.0L9–4052.5L9–40UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Utah State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Utah State
+0.376
San José State
+0.276
Utah State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Utah State
+0.709
San José State
+0.432
Utah State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Utah State
0.199
San José State
0.211
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San José State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Utah State
+7.302
San José State
+6.413
Utah State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Utah State
+0.822
San José State
+0.824
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Utah State
71.1
San José State
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Utah State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Utah State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Utah State
-8.3
San José State
-19.7
Offense Rating
Utah State
10.0
San José State
6.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Utah State
18.3
San José State
26.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Utah State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Utah State #13
1.25
San José State #116
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Utah State #44
1.13
San José State #85
0.78
Utah State +0.58
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San José State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Utah State #1
38.0
San José State #1
39.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Utah State #67
48.3
San José State #91
46.9
San José State +1.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Utah State
Blake Anderson #1
3–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Anthony Tucker Yr 1 #1
DC Ephraim Banda Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
17–31 (35%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Kevin McGiven Yr 1 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself