Sat, Sep 11 2021
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Mount Pleasant, MI
·
Turf
·
32,885 cap
Robert Morris✈ 314 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Central Michigan -37.5
O/U 53.5
consensus
Robert Morris 2021 Schedule
Robert Morris's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/11 | Robert Morris at Central Michigan | +37.5L0–45 | 53.5 | L0–45 | U | N |
Central Michigan 2021 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Central Michigan at Missouri | +13.5L24–34 | 59.0 | L24–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Central Michigan vs Robert Morris | -37.5W45–0 | 53.5 | W45–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Central Michigan at LSU | +19.5L21–49 | 61.0 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Central Michigan vs Florida International | -12.0W31–27 | 55.0 | W31–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Central Michigan at Miami (OH) | -2.5L17–28 | 56.5 | L17–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Central Michigan at Ohio | -5.0W30–27 | 58.0 | W30–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Central Michigan vs Toledo | +5.0W26–23 | 53.0 | W26–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois | -6.0L38–39 | 56.0 | L38–39 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/3 | Central Michigan at Western Michigan | +9.0W42–30 | 64.5 | W42–30 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/10 | Central Michigan vs Kent State | -2.5W54–30 | 76.5 | W54–30 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/17 | Central Michigan at Ball State | -2.5W37–17 | 57.0 | W37–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan | -8.5W31–10 | 64.0 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/31 | Central Michigan vs Washington State | +5.5W24–21 | 56.0 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/31 | Central Michigan vs Boise State | +7.5 | 55.5 | — | — | — |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Robert Morris Edge
Robert Morris +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Robert Morris Edge
Robert Morris +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Central Michigan
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Central Michigan
97.7 — 0.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Central Michigan won by 45
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Central Michigan, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓