Sat, Oct 9 2021
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Peden Stadium
Athens, OH
·
Turf
·
24,000 cap
Central Michigan✈ 324 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Central Michigan
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Central Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Central Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Central Michigan wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Central Michigan -5
O/U 58.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Central Michigan
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Central Michigan 2021 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Central Michigan at Missouri | +13.5L24–34 | 59.0 | L24–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Central Michigan vs Robert Morris | -37.5W45–0 | 53.5 | W45–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Central Michigan at LSU | +19.5L21–49 | 61.0 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Central Michigan vs Florida International | -12.0W31–27 | 55.0 | W31–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Central Michigan at Miami (OH) | -2.5L17–28 | 56.5 | L17–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Central Michigan at Ohio | -5.0W30–27 | 58.0 | W30–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Central Michigan vs Toledo | +5.0W26–23 | 53.0 | W26–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois | -6.0L38–39 | 56.0 | L38–39 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/3 | Central Michigan at Western Michigan | +9.0W42–30 | 64.5 | W42–30 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/10 | Central Michigan vs Kent State | -2.5W54–30 | 76.5 | W54–30 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/17 | Central Michigan at Ball State | -2.5W37–17 | 57.0 | W37–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan | -8.5W31–10 | 64.0 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/31 | Central Michigan vs Washington State | +5.5W24–21 | 56.0 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/31 | Central Michigan vs Boise State | +7.5 | 55.5 | — | — | — |
Ohio 2021 Schedule
Ohio's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Ohio vs Syracuse | -2.0L9–29 | 55.5 | L9–29 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Ohio vs Duquesne | -28.5L26–28 | 49.0 | L26–28 | O | N |
| Thu 9/16 | Ohio at Louisiana | +18.5L14–49 | 56.5 | L14–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Ohio at Northwestern | +13.5L6–35 | 47.5 | L6–35 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Ohio at Akron | -10.0W34–17 | 55.0 | W34–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Ohio vs Central Michigan | +5.0L27–30 | 58.0 | L27–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Ohio at Buffalo | +7.5L26–27 | 54.5 | L26–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Ohio vs Kent State | +5.0L27–34 | 68.5 | L27–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/2 | Ohio vs Miami (OH) | +7.0W35–33 | 54.5 | W35–33 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/9 | Ohio at Eastern Michigan | +6.0W34–26 | 61.5 | W34–26 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/16 | Ohio vs Toledo | +7.5L23–35 | 57.5 | L23–35 | O | N |
| Fri 11/26 | Ohio at Bowling Green | -6.0L10–21 | 48.0 | L10–21 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Central Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Central Michigan Edge
Central Michigan +0.10
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Central Michigan Edge
Central Michigan +2.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Central Michigan
15.8 — 66.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Central Michigan won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Central Michigan, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Central Michigan
Jim McElwain #1
12–11 (52%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Kevin Barbay
Yr 1
#1
DC
Robb Akey
Yr 1
#1
Ohio
Tim Albin #1
0–3 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Scott Ishpording
Yr 1
#1
DC
Pete Germano
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓