Sat, Oct 16 2021
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Mount Pleasant, MI
·
Turf
·
32,885 cap
Toledo✈ 145 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toledo
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Toledo entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Toledo wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Toledo wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Toledo -5
O/U 53.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Toledo
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Toledo 2021 Schedule
Toledo's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Toledo vs Norfolk State | -39.5W49–10 | 56.0 | W49–10 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Toledo at Notre Dame | +16.5L29–32 | 55.0 | L29–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Toledo vs Colorado State | -14.5L6–22 | 59.0 | L6–22 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Toledo at Ball State | -4.5W22–12 | 56.5 | W22–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Toledo at Massachusetts | -26.5W45–7 | 56.5 | W45–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Toledo vs Northern Illinois | -13.0L20–22 | 51.5 | L20–22 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Toledo at Central Michigan | -5.0L23–26 | 53.0 | L23–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Toledo vs Western Michigan | +1.5W34–15 | 54.5 | W34–15 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/2 | Toledo vs Eastern Michigan | -9.0L49–52 | 54.5 | L49–52 | O | N |
| Wed 11/10 | Toledo at Bowling Green | -10.5W49–17 | 50.0 | W49–17 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/16 | Toledo at Ohio | -7.5W35–23 | 57.5 | W35–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Toledo vs Akron | -28.5W49–14 | 57.5 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/17 | Toledo vs Middle Tennessee | -10.0L24–31 | 50.0 | L24–31 | O | N |
Central Michigan 2021 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Central Michigan at Missouri | +13.5L24–34 | 59.0 | L24–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Central Michigan vs Robert Morris | -37.5W45–0 | 53.5 | W45–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Central Michigan at LSU | +19.5L21–49 | 61.0 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Central Michigan vs Florida International | -12.0W31–27 | 55.0 | W31–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Central Michigan at Miami (OH) | -2.5L17–28 | 56.5 | L17–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Central Michigan at Ohio | -5.0W30–27 | 58.0 | W30–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Central Michigan vs Toledo | +5.0W26–23 | 53.0 | W26–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois | -6.0L38–39 | 56.0 | L38–39 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/3 | Central Michigan at Western Michigan | +9.0W42–30 | 64.5 | W42–30 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/10 | Central Michigan vs Kent State | -2.5W54–30 | 76.5 | W54–30 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/17 | Central Michigan at Ball State | -2.5W37–17 | 57.0 | W37–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan | -8.5W31–10 | 64.0 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/31 | Central Michigan vs Washington State | +5.5W24–21 | 56.0 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/31 | Central Michigan vs Boise State | +7.5 | 55.5 | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Toledo
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Toledo Edge
Toledo +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Toledo Edge
Toledo +26.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Toledo
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Central Michigan
77.4 — 11.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Central Michigan won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Toledo with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Toledo
Jason Candle #1
39–23 (63%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Mike Hallett
Yr 1
#1
DC
Vince Kehres
Yr 1
#1
Central Michigan
Jim McElwain #1
12–11 (52%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Kevin Barbay
Yr 1
#1
DC
Robb Akey
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓