Sat, Oct 2 2021
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Dix Stadium
Kent, OH
·
Turf
·
25,000 cap
Bowling Green✈ 121 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Bowling Green
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Bowling Green entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Bowling Green wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Bowling Green wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kent State -16.5
O/U 56.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Kent State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Bowling Green 2021 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Bowling Green at Tennessee | +37.0L6–38 | 60.5 | L6–38 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Bowling Green vs South Alabama | +14.5L19–22 | 48.0 | L19–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Bowling Green vs Murray State | +2.5W27–10 | 44.0 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Bowling Green at Minnesota | +30.5W14–10 | 52.5 | W14–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Bowling Green at Kent State | +16.5L20–27 | 56.0 | L20–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Bowling Green vs Akron | -14.0L20–35 | 46.0 | L20–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Bowling Green at Northern Illinois | +9.0L26–34 | 44.5 | L26–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Bowling Green vs Eastern Michigan | +4.5L24–55 | 49.5 | L24–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Bowling Green at Buffalo | +13.5W56–44 | 51.5 | W56–44 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/10 | Bowling Green vs Toledo | +10.5L17–49 | 50.0 | L17–49 | O | N |
| Tue 11/16 | Bowling Green at Miami (OH) | +17.0L7–34 | 52.0 | L7–34 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | Bowling Green vs Ohio | +6.0W21–10 | 48.0 | W21–10 | U | Y |
Kent State 2021 Schedule
Kent State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Kent State at Texas A&M | +29.5L10–41 | 67.0 | L10–41 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Kent State vs VMI | -19.0W60–10 | 73.0 | W60–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Kent State at Iowa | +22.0L7–30 | 55.5 | L7–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Kent State at Maryland | +13.0L16–37 | 71.5 | L16–37 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Kent State vs Bowling Green | -16.5W27–20 | 56.0 | W27–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Kent State vs Buffalo | -7.0W48–38 | 66.0 | W48–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Kent State at Western Michigan | +7.0L31–64 | 68.5 | L31–64 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Kent State at Ohio | -5.0W34–27 | 68.5 | W34–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/3 | Kent State vs Northern Illinois | -3.5W52–47 | 72.0 | W52–47 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/10 | Kent State at Central Michigan | +2.5L30–54 | 76.5 | L30–54 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Kent State at Akron | -13.5W38–0 | 72.5 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Kent State vs Miami (OH) | +1.0W48–47 | 68.0 | W48–47 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/4 | Kent State vs Northern Illinois | -3.5L23–41 | 75.5 | L23–41 | U | N |
| Tue 12/21 | Kent State vs Wyoming | +3.0L38–52 | 61.0 | L38–52 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kent State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Bowling Green Edge
Bowling Green +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Bowling Green Edge
Bowling Green +6.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Bowling Green. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
4–16 (20%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Terry Malone
Yr 1
#1
DC
Eric Lewis
Yr 1
#1
Kent State
Sean Lewis #1
13–19 (41%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Andrew Sowder
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tom Kaufman
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓