Fri, Sep 3 2021
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Neyland Stadium
Knoxville, TN
·
Turf
·
102,455 cap
Bowling Green✈ 375 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Tennessee -37
O/U 60.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Tennessee
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Bowling Green 2021 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Bowling Green at Tennessee | +37.0L6–38 | 60.5 | L6–38 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Bowling Green vs South Alabama | +14.5L19–22 | 48.0 | L19–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Bowling Green vs Murray State | +2.5W27–10 | 44.0 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Bowling Green at Minnesota | +30.5W14–10 | 52.5 | W14–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Bowling Green at Kent State | +16.5L20–27 | 56.0 | L20–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Bowling Green vs Akron | -14.0L20–35 | 46.0 | L20–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Bowling Green at Northern Illinois | +9.0L26–34 | 44.5 | L26–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Bowling Green vs Eastern Michigan | +4.5L24–55 | 49.5 | L24–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Bowling Green at Buffalo | +13.5W56–44 | 51.5 | W56–44 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/10 | Bowling Green vs Toledo | +10.5L17–49 | 50.0 | L17–49 | O | N |
| Tue 11/16 | Bowling Green at Miami (OH) | +17.0L7–34 | 52.0 | L7–34 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | Bowling Green vs Ohio | +6.0W21–10 | 48.0 | W21–10 | U | Y |
Tennessee 2021 Schedule
Tennessee's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Tennessee vs Bowling Green | -37.0W38–6 | 60.5 | W38–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Tennessee vs Pittsburgh | +3.5L34–41 | 56.0 | L34–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech | -38.0W56–0 | 53.0 | W56–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Tennessee at Florida | +19.0L14–38 | 65.0 | L14–38 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Tennessee at Missouri | +2.5W62–24 | 66.5 | W62–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Tennessee vs South Carolina | -10.5W45–20 | 57.0 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Tennessee vs Ole Miss | +1.0L26–31 | 82.0 | L26–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Tennessee at Alabama | +24.5L24–52 | 68.0 | L24–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | Tennessee at Kentucky | -1.0W45–42 | 57.5 | W45–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Tennessee vs Georgia | +19.0L17–41 | 56.0 | L17–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Tennessee vs South Alabama | -28.5W60–14 | 61.5 | W60–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Tennessee vs Vanderbilt | -33.0W45–21 | 65.0 | W45–21 | O | N |
| Thu 12/30 | Tennessee vs Purdue | -8.0L45–48 | 67.0 | L45–48 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Tennessee
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Tennessee
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tennessee
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Bowling Green Edge
Bowling Green +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Bowling Green Edge
Bowling Green +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tennessee
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Tennessee
97.8 — 0.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Tennessee won by 32
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Tennessee, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Bowling Green
Scot Loeffler #1
4–16 (20%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Terry Malone
Yr 1
#1
DC
Eric Lewis
Yr 1
#1
Tennessee
Josh Heupel #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Alex Golesh
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim Banks
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓