Matchup Prediction
Wyoming
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Wyoming entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Wyoming wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Wyoming wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Wyoming -31.5
O/U 53.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Wyoming
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Wyoming 2021 Schedule
Wyoming's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Wyoming vs Montana State | -19.0W19–16 | 45.0 | W19–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Wyoming at Northern Illinois | -7.0W50–43 | 44.0 | W50–43 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Wyoming vs Ball State | -6.5W45–12 | 53.5 | W45–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Wyoming at UConn | -31.5W24–22 | 53.5 | W24–22 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | Wyoming at Air Force | +5.5L14–24 | 46.5 | L14–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Wyoming vs Fresno State | +3.0L0–17 | 53.5 | L0–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Wyoming vs New Mexico | -20.0L3–14 | 41.0 | L3–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Wyoming at San José State | +3.0L21–27 | 40.0 | L21–27 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Wyoming vs Colorado State | +3.0W31–17 | 41.5 | W31–17 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/12 | Wyoming at Boise State | +14.0L13–23 | 49.0 | L13–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Wyoming at Utah State | +6.0W44–17 | 52.0 | W44–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Wyoming vs Hawai'i | -13.0L14–38 | 48.5 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Tue 12/21 | Wyoming vs Kent State | -3.0W52–38 | 61.0 | W52–38 | O | Y |
UConn 2021 Schedule
UConn's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/28 | UConn at Fresno State | +28.0L0–45 | 63.5 | L0–45 | U | N |
| Sat 9/4 | UConn vs Holy Cross | -3.0L28–38 | 49.5 | L28–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | UConn vs Purdue | +35.0L0–49 | 56.5 | L0–49 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | UConn at Army | +34.5L21–52 | 48.0 | L21–52 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | UConn vs Wyoming | +31.5L22–24 | 53.5 | L22–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | UConn at Vanderbilt | +14.5L28–30 | 51.5 | L28–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | UConn at Massachusetts | -3.0L13–27 | 57.0 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | UConn vs Yale | +3.5W21–15 | 46.5 | W21–15 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/22 | UConn vs Middle Tennessee | +14.0L13–44 | 54.0 | L13–44 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/13 | UConn at Clemson | +40.5L7–44 | 50.5 | L7–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | UConn at UCF | +30.0L17–49 | 56.0 | L17–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | UConn vs Houston | +32.0L17–45 | 54.5 | L17–45 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Wyoming
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Wyoming Edge
Wyoming +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wyoming Edge
Wyoming +65.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Wyoming
23.2 — 67.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Wyoming won by 2
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Wyoming with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Wyoming
Craig Bohl #1
41–44 (48%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Tim Polasek
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jay Sawvel
Yr 1
#1
UConn
Lou Spanos #1
0–2 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Frank Giufre
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jarren Horton
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓