Sat, Nov 6 2021
·
Week 10
·
🏟 War Memorial Stadium
Laramie, WY
·
Turf
·
29,181 cap
Matchup Prediction
Colorado State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Colorado State entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Colorado State wins
Solid
Game Control
58.3%
Colorado State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Colorado State -3
O/U 41.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Colorado State 2021 Schedule
Colorado State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Colorado State vs South Dakota State | -2.5L23–42 | 50.5 | L23–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Colorado State vs Vanderbilt | -6.5L21–24 | 52.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Colorado State at Toledo | +14.5W22–6 | 59.0 | W22–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Colorado State at Iowa | +24.0L14–24 | 43.5 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | Colorado State vs San José State | -3.5W32–14 | 44.0 | W32–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Colorado State at New Mexico | -13.0W36–7 | 44.5 | W36–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/22 | Colorado State at Utah State | -3.0L24–26 | 58.5 | L24–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Colorado State vs Boise State | +2.0L19–28 | 51.5 | L19–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Colorado State at Wyoming | -3.0L17–31 | 41.5 | L17–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Colorado State vs Air Force | +3.0L21–35 | 45.0 | L21–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Colorado State at Hawai'i | -3.0L45–50 | 54.0 | L45–50 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Colorado State vs Nevada | +3.0L10–52 | 57.5 | L10–52 | O | N |
Wyoming 2021 Schedule
Wyoming's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Wyoming vs Montana State | -19.0W19–16 | 45.0 | W19–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Wyoming at Northern Illinois | -7.0W50–43 | 44.0 | W50–43 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Wyoming vs Ball State | -6.5W45–12 | 53.5 | W45–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Wyoming at UConn | -31.5W24–22 | 53.5 | W24–22 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | Wyoming at Air Force | +5.5L14–24 | 46.5 | L14–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Wyoming vs Fresno State | +3.0L0–17 | 53.5 | L0–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Wyoming vs New Mexico | -20.0L3–14 | 41.0 | L3–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Wyoming at San José State | +3.0L21–27 | 40.0 | L21–27 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Wyoming vs Colorado State | +3.0W31–17 | 41.5 | W31–17 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/12 | Wyoming at Boise State | +14.0L13–23 | 49.0 | L13–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Wyoming at Utah State | +6.0W44–17 | 52.0 | W44–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Wyoming vs Hawai'i | -13.0L14–38 | 48.5 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Tue 12/21 | Wyoming vs Kent State | -3.0W52–38 | 61.0 | W52–38 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Colorado State Edge
Colorado State +1.14
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Colorado State Edge
Colorado State +4.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Colorado State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Colorado State
Steve Addazio #1
2–5 (29%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jon Budmayr
Yr 1
#1
DC
Chuck Heater
Yr 1
#1
Wyoming
Craig Bohl #1
41–44 (48%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Tim Polasek
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jay Sawvel
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓