Sat, Oct 30 2021
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Carrier Dome
Syracuse, NY
·
Turf
·
49,250 cap
Boston College✈ 257 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Boston College
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Boston College entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Boston College wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Boston College wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Syracuse -6.5
O/U 51.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Boston College 2021 Schedule
Boston College's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Boston College vs Colgate | -42.5W51–0 | 56.5 | W51–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Boston College at Massachusetts | -39.0W45–28 | 57.0 | W45–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Boston College at Temple | -15.0W28–3 | 55.5 | W28–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Boston College vs Missouri | -1.0W41–34 | 58.5 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Boston College at Clemson | +14.5L13–19 | 46.5 | L13–19 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Boston College vs NC State | +3.0L7–33 | 51.0 | L7–33 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Boston College at Louisville | +4.0L14–28 | 57.5 | L14–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Boston College at Syracuse | +6.5L6–21 | 51.5 | L6–21 | U | N |
| Fri 11/5 | Boston College vs Virginia Tech | +1.0W17–3 | 51.0 | W17–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Boston College at Georgia Tech | -2.0W41–30 | 55.0 | W41–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Boston College vs Florida State | -3.0L23–26 | 55.5 | L23–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Boston College vs Wake Forest | +5.5L10–41 | 64.0 | L10–41 | U | N |
| Mon 12/27 | Boston College vs East Carolina | -3.0 | 52.5 | — | — | — |
Syracuse 2021 Schedule
Syracuse's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Syracuse at Ohio | +2.0W29–9 | 55.5 | W29–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Syracuse vs Rutgers | +2.5L7–17 | 50.5 | L7–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Syracuse vs UAlbany | -21.5W62–24 | 41.0 | W62–24 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/24 | Syracuse vs Liberty | +6.5W24–21 | 54.0 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Syracuse at Florida State | +5.5L30–33 | 50.0 | L30–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Syracuse vs Wake Forest | +5.5L37–40 | 59.0 | L37–40 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/15 | Syracuse vs Clemson | +12.5L14–17 | 44.0 | L14–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Syracuse at Virginia Tech | +3.5W41–36 | 45.5 | W41–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Syracuse vs Boston College | -6.5W21–6 | 51.5 | W21–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/13 | Syracuse at Louisville | +3.0L3–41 | 55.5 | L3–41 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Syracuse at NC State | +11.0L17–41 | 49.5 | L17–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Syracuse vs Pittsburgh | +12.0L14–31 | 58.5 | L14–31 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Boston College Edge
Boston College +0.12
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Boston College Edge
Boston College +11.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Syracuse
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Syracuse
48.4 — 21.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Syracuse won by 15
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Boston College. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Boston College
Jeff Hafley #1
9–5 (64%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Frank Cignetti Jr.
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tem Lukabu
Yr 1
#1
Syracuse
Dino Babers #1
26–37 (41%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Sterlin Gilbert
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tony White
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓