Sat, Sep 18 2021
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia, PA
·
Turf
·
68,532 cap
Boston College✈ 267 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Boston College
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Boston College entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Boston College wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Boston College wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Boston College -15
O/U 55.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Boston College
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Boston College 2021 Schedule
Boston College's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Boston College vs Colgate | -42.5W51–0 | 56.5 | W51–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Boston College at Massachusetts | -39.0W45–28 | 57.0 | W45–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Boston College at Temple | -15.0W28–3 | 55.5 | W28–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Boston College vs Missouri | -1.0W41–34 | 58.5 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Boston College at Clemson | +14.5L13–19 | 46.5 | L13–19 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Boston College vs NC State | +3.0L7–33 | 51.0 | L7–33 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Boston College at Louisville | +4.0L14–28 | 57.5 | L14–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Boston College at Syracuse | +6.5L6–21 | 51.5 | L6–21 | U | N |
| Fri 11/5 | Boston College vs Virginia Tech | +1.0W17–3 | 51.0 | W17–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Boston College at Georgia Tech | -2.0W41–30 | 55.0 | W41–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Boston College vs Florida State | -3.0L23–26 | 55.5 | L23–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Boston College vs Wake Forest | +5.5L10–41 | 64.0 | L10–41 | U | N |
| Mon 12/27 | Boston College vs East Carolina | -3.0 | 52.5 | — | — | — |
Temple 2021 Schedule
Temple's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Temple at Rutgers | +14.0L14–61 | 52.0 | L14–61 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Temple at Akron | -6.5W45–24 | 51.5 | W45–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Temple vs Boston College | +15.0L3–28 | 55.5 | L3–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Temple vs Wagner | -36.5W41–7 | 54.5 | W41–7 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Temple vs Memphis | +11.0W34–31 | 58.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/8 | Temple at Cincinnati | +30.0L3–52 | 52.5 | L3–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Temple at South Florida | +1.5L14–34 | 54.5 | L14–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Temple vs UCF | +12.0L7–49 | 52.0 | L7–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Temple at East Carolina | +15.5L3–45 | 52.0 | L3–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Temple vs Houston | +26.0L8–37 | 52.5 | L8–37 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Temple at Tulsa | +22.0L10–44 | 50.5 | L10–44 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Temple vs Navy | +13.5L14–38 | 42.0 | L14–38 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boston College
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Boston College Edge
Boston College +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Boston College Edge
Boston College +67.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Boston College with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Boston College
Jeff Hafley #1
9–5 (64%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Frank Cignetti Jr.
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tem Lukabu
Yr 1
#1
Temple
Rod Carey #1
10–13 (44%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Mike Uremovich
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jeff Knowles
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓