Western Kentucky at UTSA Week 14 College Football Matchup Western Kentucky at UTSA Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Dec 4 2021 · Week 14 · 🏟 Alamodome San Antonio, TX · Turf · 65,000 cap
Western Kentucky✈ 868 miSame TZ
41 49
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Western Kentucky
37
WKU -3
UTSA
33
P&R Line Western Kentucky -4.5
P&R Total O/U 70
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Western Kentucky -3 · O/U 74.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Western Kentucky, while Game Control favors UTSA. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Western Kentucky wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
UTSA wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Western Kentucky -3
O/U 74.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Western Kentucky · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Western Kentucky 2nd straight Road Game
Western Kentucky 2021 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2Western Kentucky vs UT Martin-24.0W59–2158.5W59–21OY
Sat 9/11Western Kentucky at Army+6.0L35–3852.0L35–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/25Western Kentucky vs Indiana+9.5L31–3362.5L31–33OY
Sat 10/2Western Kentucky at Michigan State+10.5L31–4866.5L31–48ON
Sat 10/9Western Kentucky vs UTSA-3.5L46–5271.0L46–52ON
Sat 10/16Western Kentucky at Old Dominion-13.5W43–2066.5W43–20UY
Sat 10/23Western Kentucky at Florida International-16.5W34–1978.0W34–19UN
Sat 10/30Western Kentucky vs Charlotte-19.5W45–1371.5W45–13UY
Sat 11/6Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee-17.5W48–2166.5W48–21OY
Sat 11/13Western Kentucky at Rice-19.0W42–2161.0W42–21OY
Sat 11/20Western Kentucky vs Florida Atlantic-11.5W52–1764.0W52–17OY
Sat 11/27Western Kentucky at Marshall-1.0W53–2175.5W53–21UY
Fri 12/3Western Kentucky at UTSA-3.0L41–4974.5L41–49ON
Sat 12/18Western Kentucky vs App State+3.0W59–3867.0W59–38OY
UTSA 2021 Schedule
UTSA's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4UTSA at Illinois+4.5W37–3052.0W37–30OY
Sat 9/11UTSA vs Lamar-38.0W54–065.0W54–0UY
Sat 9/18UTSA vs Middle Tennessee-11.5W27–1360.0W27–13UY
Sat 9/25UTSA at Memphis+3.0W31–2866.5W31–28UY
Sat 10/2UTSA vs UNLV-21.5W24–1755.5W24–17UN
Sat 10/9UTSA at Western Kentucky+3.5W52–4671.0W52–46OY
Sat 10/16UTSA vs Rice-17.0W45–053.0W45–0UY
Sat 10/23UTSA at Louisiana Tech-5.5W45–1659.5W45–16OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/6UTSA at UTEP-12.0W44–2353.5W44–23OY
Sat 11/13UTSA vs Southern Miss-32.5W27–1754.0W27–17UN
Sat 11/20UTSA vs UAB-3.5W34–3154.0W34–31ON
Sat 11/27UTSA at North Texas-8.5L23–4560.0L23–45ON
Fri 12/3UTSA vs Western Kentucky+3.0W49–4174.5W49–41OY
Tue 12/21UTSA vs San Diego State+3.0L24–3848.0L24–38ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Western Kentucky PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Kentucky
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Western Kentucky
+0.597
UTSA
+0.497
Western Kentucky Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky
+0.846
UTSA
+0.700
Western Kentucky Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky
0.177
UTSA
0.183
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UTSA Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky
+8.636
UTSA
+8.421
Western Kentucky Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Western Kentucky
+0.950
UTSA
+0.907
Western Kentucky Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Western Kentucky
68.7
UTSA
69.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Western Kentucky Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UTSA Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Western Kentucky
-5.5
UTSA
-0.2
Offense Rating
Western Kentucky
11.9
UTSA
16.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Western Kentucky
17.3
UTSA
16.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Western Kentucky Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Western Kentucky #1
2.50
UTSA #32
1.75
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Kentucky #47
0.75
UTSA #24
0.58
Western Kentucky +0.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? UTSA Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Western Kentucky #1
57.6
UTSA #1
64.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Kentucky #54
35.1
UTSA #21
21.6
UTSA +7.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
UTSA
69.3 — 14.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
UTSA won by 8
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
15–12 (56%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 1 #1
DC Maurice Crum Jr. Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UTSA
Jeff Traylor #1
10–5 (67%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Barry Lunney Jr. Yr 1 #1
DC Jess Loepp / Rod Wright Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself