Sat, Nov 13 2021
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Murfreesboro, TN
·
Turf
·
31,000 cap
Florida International✈ 782 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Middle Tennessee
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Middle Tennessee entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Middle Tennessee wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Middle Tennessee wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Middle Tennessee -10.5
O/U 54.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Middle Tennessee
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Florida International 2021 Schedule
Florida International's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Florida International vs Long Island University | -35.0W48–10 | 49.0 | W48–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Florida International vs Texas State | -2.0L17–23 | 55.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Florida International at Texas Tech | +20.5L21–54 | 54.0 | L21–54 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Florida International at Central Michigan | +12.0L27–31 | 55.0 | L27–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Florida International at Florida Atlantic | +10.5L21–58 | 52.0 | L21–58 | O | N |
| Fri 10/8 | Florida International vs Charlotte | +3.5L33–45 | 61.0 | L33–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Florida International vs Western Kentucky | +16.5L19–34 | 78.0 | L19–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Florida International at Marshall | +21.5L0–38 | 64.0 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Florida International vs Old Dominion | +3.0L24–47 | 50.0 | L24–47 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Florida International at Middle Tennessee | +10.5L10–50 | 54.0 | L10–50 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Florida International vs North Texas | +10.0L7–49 | 57.0 | L7–49 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Florida International at Southern Miss | +14.5L17–37 | 45.5 | L17–37 | O | N |
Middle Tennessee 2021 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Middle Tennessee vs Monmouth | -8.5W50–15 | 58.5 | W50–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Middle Tennessee at Virginia Tech | +20.0L14–35 | 55.0 | L14–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Middle Tennessee at UTSA | +11.5L13–27 | 60.0 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Fri 9/24 | Middle Tennessee at Charlotte | +2.5L39–42 | 55.5 | L39–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Middle Tennessee vs Marshall | +11.0W34–28 | 66.0 | W34–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Middle Tennessee at Liberty | +20.0L13–41 | 59.0 | L13–41 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/22 | Middle Tennessee at UConn | -14.0W44–13 | 54.0 | W44–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Middle Tennessee vs Southern Miss | -12.5W35–10 | 47.0 | W35–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky | +17.5L21–48 | 66.5 | L21–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Middle Tennessee vs Florida International | -10.5W50–10 | 54.0 | W50–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Middle Tennessee vs Old Dominion | -3.0L17–24 | 48.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic | +3.5W27–17 | 49.5 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/17 | Middle Tennessee vs Toledo | +10.0W31–24 | 50.0 | W31–24 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Middle Tennessee
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Middle Tennessee
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Middle Tennessee
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Middle Tennessee Edge
Middle Tennessee +0.74
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Middle Tennessee Edge
Middle Tennessee +17.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Middle Tennessee
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Middle Tennessee
95.5 — 2.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Middle Tennessee won by 40
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Middle Tennessee with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida International
Butch Davis #1
24–23 (51%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Andrew Breiner
Yr 1
#1
DC
Everett Withers
Yr 1
#1
Middle Tennessee
Rick Stockstill #1
95–94 (50%)
· Yr 16 at school
OC
Brent Dearmon
Yr 1
#1
DC
Scott Shafer
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓