Sat, Oct 30 2021
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Murfreesboro, TN
·
Turf
·
31,000 cap
Southern Miss✈ 355 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Middle Tennessee
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Middle Tennessee entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Middle Tennessee wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Middle Tennessee wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Middle Tennessee -12.5
O/U 47.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Middle Tennessee
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Southern Miss 2021 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Southern Miss at South Alabama | +2.0L7–31 | 56.5 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Southern Miss vs Grambling | -23.0W37–0 | 47.5 | W37–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Southern Miss vs Troy | +11.0L9–21 | 49.0 | L9–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Southern Miss at Alabama | +45.0L14–63 | 57.5 | L14–63 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Southern Miss at Rice | +1.5L19–24 | 45.0 | L19–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Southern Miss vs UTEP | +1.0L13–26 | 46.5 | L13–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Southern Miss vs UAB | +17.0L0–34 | 43.0 | L0–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Southern Miss at Middle Tennessee | +12.5L10–35 | 47.0 | L10–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Southern Miss vs North Texas | +5.5L14–38 | 49.0 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Southern Miss at UTSA | +32.5L17–27 | 54.0 | L17–27 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/19 | Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech | +15.0W35–19 | 47.5 | W35–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Southern Miss vs Florida International | -14.5W37–17 | 45.5 | W37–17 | O | Y |
Middle Tennessee 2021 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Middle Tennessee vs Monmouth | -8.5W50–15 | 58.5 | W50–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Middle Tennessee at Virginia Tech | +20.0L14–35 | 55.0 | L14–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Middle Tennessee at UTSA | +11.5L13–27 | 60.0 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Fri 9/24 | Middle Tennessee at Charlotte | +2.5L39–42 | 55.5 | L39–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Middle Tennessee vs Marshall | +11.0W34–28 | 66.0 | W34–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Middle Tennessee at Liberty | +20.0L13–41 | 59.0 | L13–41 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/22 | Middle Tennessee at UConn | -14.0W44–13 | 54.0 | W44–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Middle Tennessee vs Southern Miss | -12.5W35–10 | 47.0 | W35–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky | +17.5L21–48 | 66.5 | L21–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Middle Tennessee vs Florida International | -10.5W50–10 | 54.0 | W50–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Middle Tennessee vs Old Dominion | -3.0L17–24 | 48.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic | +3.5W27–17 | 49.5 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/17 | Middle Tennessee vs Toledo | +10.0W31–24 | 50.0 | W31–24 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Middle Tennessee
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Middle Tennessee
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Middle Tennessee
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Middle Tennessee Edge
Middle Tennessee +1.26
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Middle Tennessee Edge
Middle Tennessee +16.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Middle Tennessee with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Southern Miss
Will Hall #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Cayden Cochran
Yr 1
#1
DC
Austin Armstrong
Yr 1
#1
Middle Tennessee
Rick Stockstill #1
95–94 (50%)
· Yr 16 at school
OC
Brent Dearmon
Yr 1
#1
DC
Scott Shafer
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓