Sun, Sep 26 2021
·
Week 4
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🏟 Aggie Memorial Stadium
Las Cruces, NM
·
Turf
·
30,343 cap
Hawai'i✈ 3,210 mi+4 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Hawai'i,
while Game Control favors New Mexico State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Hawai'i wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
New Mexico State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Hawai'i -17
O/U 63.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Hawai'i
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Hawai'i 2021 Schedule
Hawai'i's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/28 | Hawai'i at UCLA | +17.5L10–44 | 67.0 | L10–44 | U | N |
| Sat 9/4 | Hawai'i vs Portland State | -26.0W49–35 | 57.5 | W49–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Hawai'i at Oregon State | +11.0L27–45 | 65.0 | L27–45 | O | N |
| Sun 9/19 | Hawai'i vs San José State | +8.0L13–17 | 62.5 | L13–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Hawai'i at New Mexico State | -17.0W41–21 | 63.0 | W41–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Hawai'i vs Fresno State | +10.5W27–24 | 64.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Hawai'i at Nevada | +14.0L17–34 | 61.5 | L17–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Hawai'i vs New Mexico State | -18.0W48–34 | 62.5 | W48–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Hawai'i at Utah State | +3.5L31–51 | 66.0 | L31–51 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Hawai'i vs San Diego State | +7.0L10–17 | 45.0 | L10–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Hawai'i at UNLV | -3.5L13–27 | 55.5 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Hawai'i vs Colorado State | +3.0W50–45 | 54.0 | W50–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Hawai'i at Wyoming | +13.0W38–14 | 48.5 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/24 | Hawai'i vs Memphis | +10.0 | 56.0 | — | — | — |
New Mexico State 2021 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/28 | New Mexico State vs UTEP | +9.5L3–30 | 59.0 | L3–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/4 | New Mexico State at San Diego State | +31.0L10–28 | 51.0 | L10–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | New Mexico State at New Mexico | +19.5L25–34 | 55.5 | L25–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | New Mexico State vs South Carolina State | -3.5W43–35 | 54.5 | W43–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | New Mexico State vs Hawai'i | +17.0L21–41 | 63.0 | L21–41 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | New Mexico State at San José State | +25.5L31–37 | 51.5 | L31–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | New Mexico State at Nevada | +28.5L28–55 | 64.5 | L28–55 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | New Mexico State at Hawai'i | +18.0L34–48 | 62.5 | L34–48 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | New Mexico State vs Utah State | +18.0L13–35 | 72.0 | L13–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | New Mexico State at Alabama | +50.0L3–59 | 67.0 | L3–59 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | New Mexico State at Kentucky | +35.5L16–56 | 61.0 | L16–56 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | New Mexico State vs Massachusetts | -7.0W44–27 | 58.5 | W44–27 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Hawai'i
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Hawai'i
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Hawai'i
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Hawai'i Edge
Hawai'i +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
New Mexico State Edge
New Mexico State +0.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Hawai'i
1 — 3 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Hawai'i
3.9 — 89.8 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Hawai'i won by 20
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Hawai'i
Todd Graham #1
6–7 (46%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Bo Graham
Yr 1
#1
DC
Todd Graham
Yr 1
#1
New Mexico State
Doug Martin #1
23–67 (26%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Doug Martin
Yr 1
#1
DC
Frank Spaziani
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓