Utah State at New Mexico State Week 10 College Football Matchup Utah State at New Mexico State Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 6 2021 · Week 10 · 🏟 Aggie Memorial Stadium Las Cruces, NM · Turf · 30,343 cap
Utah State✈ 711 miSame TZ
35 13
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Utah State
44
New Mexico State
22
P&R Line Utah State -22
P&R Total O/U 65.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Utah State -18 · O/U 72.0
Matchup Prediction
Utah State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Utah State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Utah State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Utah State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Utah State -18
O/U 72.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Utah State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 New Mexico State Coming off BYE
Utah State 2021 Schedule
Utah State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Utah State at Washington State+17.5W26–2366.5W26–23UY
Fri 9/10Utah State vs North Dakota-6.5W48–2453.5W48–24OY
Sat 9/18Utah State at Air Force+9.0W49–4554.0W49–45OY
Sat 9/25Utah State vs Boise State+9.5L3–2769.5L3–27UN
Fri 10/1Utah State vs BYU+9.0L20–3466.0L20–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Utah State at UNLV-7.5W28–2464.0W28–24UN
Fri 10/22Utah State vs Colorado State+3.0W26–2458.5W26–24UY
Sat 10/30Utah State vs Hawai'i-3.5W51–3166.0W51–31OY
Sat 11/6Utah State at New Mexico State-18.0W35–1372.0W35–13UY
Sat 11/13Utah State at San José State+4.5W48–1758.0W48–17OY
Sat 11/20Utah State vs Wyoming-6.0L17–4452.0L17–44ON
Fri 11/26Utah State at New Mexico-17.0W35–1048.0W35–10UY
Sat 12/4Utah State at San Diego State+6.5W46–1349.5W46–13OY
Sat 12/18Utah State vs Oregon State+7.0W24–1368.0W24–13UY
New Mexico State 2021 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/28New Mexico State vs UTEP+9.5L3–3059.0L3–30UN
Sat 9/4New Mexico State at San Diego State+31.0L10–2851.0L10–28UY
Sat 9/11New Mexico State at New Mexico+19.5L25–3455.5L25–34OY
Sat 9/18New Mexico State vs South Carolina State-3.5W43–3554.5W43–35OY
Sat 9/25New Mexico State vs Hawai'i+17.0L21–4163.0L21–41UN
Sat 10/2New Mexico State at San José State+25.5L31–3751.5L31–37OY
Sat 10/9New Mexico State at Nevada+28.5L28–5564.5L28–55OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/23New Mexico State at Hawai'i+18.0L34–4862.5L34–48OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/6New Mexico State vs Utah State+18.0L13–3572.0L13–35UN
Sat 11/13New Mexico State at Alabama+50.0L3–5967.0L3–59UN
Sat 11/20New Mexico State at Kentucky+35.5L16–5661.0L16–56ON
Sat 11/27New Mexico State vs Massachusetts-7.0W44–2758.5W44–27OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Utah State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Utah State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Utah State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Utah State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Utah State
+0.625
New Mexico State
+0.292
Utah State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Utah State
+1.104
New Mexico State
+0.388
Utah State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Utah State
0.199
New Mexico State
0.170
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Utah State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Utah State
+7.487
New Mexico State
+6.424
Utah State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Utah State
+0.897
New Mexico State
+0.846
Utah State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Utah State
71.1
New Mexico State
74.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Utah State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Utah State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Utah State
-8.3
New Mexico State
-14.9
Offense Rating
Utah State
10.0
New Mexico State
6.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Utah State
18.3
New Mexico State
21.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Utah State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Utah State #13
1.00
New Mexico State #123
0.43
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Utah State #44
1.14
New Mexico State #142
1.57
Utah State +0.57
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Utah State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Utah State #1
33.7
New Mexico State #1
16.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Utah State #67
52.5
New Mexico State #123
78.0
Utah State +17.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Utah State
1 — 3 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Utah State
15.2 — 71.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Utah State won by 22
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Utah State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Utah State
Blake Anderson #1
3–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Anthony Tucker Yr 1 #1
DC Ephraim Banda Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
New Mexico State
Doug Martin #1
23–67 (26%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Doug Martin Yr 1 #1
DC Frank Spaziani Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself