New Mexico State at Alabama Week 11 College Football Matchup New Mexico State at Alabama Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 13 2021 · Week 11 · 🏟 Bryant Denny Stadium Tuscaloosa, AL · Turf · 101,821 cap
New Mexico State✈ 1,115 mi+1 hr TZ
3 59
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
New Mexico State
14
NMSU +50
Alabama
52
P&R Line Alabama -38
P&R Total O/U 65
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Alabama -50.0 · O/U 67.0
Matchup Prediction
Alabama has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Alabama entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Alabama wins
Strong
Game Control
76%
Alabama wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Alabama -50.0
O/U 67.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Alabama · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Alabama 3rd straight Home Game
New Mexico State 2021 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/28New Mexico State vs UTEP+9.5L3–3059.0L3–30UN
Sat 9/4New Mexico State at San Diego State+31.0L10–2851.0L10–28UY
Sat 9/11New Mexico State at New Mexico+19.5L25–3455.5L25–34OY
Sat 9/18New Mexico State vs South Carolina State-3.5W43–3554.5W43–35OY
Sat 9/25New Mexico State vs Hawai'i+17.0L21–4163.0L21–41UN
Sat 10/2New Mexico State at San José State+25.5L31–3751.5L31–37OY
Sat 10/9New Mexico State at Nevada+28.5L28–5564.5L28–55OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/23New Mexico State at Hawai'i+18.0L34–4862.5L34–48OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/6New Mexico State vs Utah State+18.0L13–3572.0L13–35UN
Sat 11/13New Mexico State at Alabama+50.0L3–5967.0L3–59UN
Sat 11/20New Mexico State at Kentucky+35.5L16–5661.0L16–56ON
Sat 11/27New Mexico State vs Massachusetts-7.0W44–2758.5W44–27OY
Alabama 2021 Schedule
Alabama's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Alabama vs Miami-19.5W44–1361.5W44–13UY
Sat 9/11Alabama vs Mercer-54.0W48–1460.5W48–14ON
Sat 9/18Alabama at Florida-14.0W31–2959.5W31–29ON
Sat 9/25Alabama vs Southern Miss-45.0W63–1457.5W63–14OY
Sat 10/2Alabama vs Ole Miss-15.0W42–2179.5W42–21UY
Sat 10/9Alabama at Texas A&M-18.5L38–4150.5L38–41ON
Sat 10/16Alabama at Mississippi State-17.5W49–959.5W49–9UY
Sat 10/23Alabama vs Tennessee-24.5W52–2468.0W52–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/6Alabama vs LSU-29.5W20–1466.5W20–14UN
Sat 11/13Alabama vs New Mexico State-50.0W59–367.0W59–3UY
Sat 11/20Alabama vs Arkansas-20.5W42–3558.5W42–35ON
Sat 11/27Alabama at Auburn-21.0W24–2257.5W24–22UN
Sat 12/4Alabama vs Georgia+6.0W41–2448.5W41–24OY
Fri 12/31Alabama vs Cincinnati-13.0W27–657.5W27–6UY
Mon 1/10Alabama vs Georgia+3.0L18–3353.5L18–33UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Alabama PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Alabama
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Alabama
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
New Mexico State
+0.193
Alabama
+0.695
Alabama Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State
+0.247
Alabama
+1.051
Alabama Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
New Mexico State
0.170
Alabama
0.201
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Alabama Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State
+6.997
Alabama
+8.478
Alabama Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
New Mexico State
+0.802
Alabama
+0.965
Alabama Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
New Mexico State
74.0
Alabama
71.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Alabama Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Alabama Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
New Mexico State
-14.8
Alabama
17.4
Offense Rating
New Mexico State
6.3
Alabama
21.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
New Mexico State
21.1
Alabama
4.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Alabama Edge
Avg sequences created per game
New Mexico State #123
0.50
Alabama #2
2.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #142
1.75
Alabama #23
0.75
Alabama +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Alabama Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
New Mexico State #1
16.6
Alabama #1
85.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #123
77.4
Alabama #3
7.3
Alabama +69.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Alabama
7 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Alabama
92.0 — 0.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Alabama won by 56
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Alabama with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Doug Martin #1
23–67 (26%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Doug Martin Yr 1 #1
DC Frank Spaziani Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Alabama
Nick Saban #1
167–23 (88%) · Yr 15 at school
OC Bill O'Brien Yr 1 #1
DC Pete Golding Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself