Sat, Sep 13 2025
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Jordan-Hare Stadium
Auburn, AL
·
Turf
·
87,451 cap
South Alabama✈ 199 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Auburn
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Auburn entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Auburn wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Auburn wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Auburn -26.5
O/U 56.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Auburn
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
South Alabama 2025 Schedule
South Alabama's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | South Alabama vs Morgan State | -28.5W38–21 | 51.5 | W38–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | South Alabama vs Tulane | +13.5L31–33 | 51.5 | L31–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | South Alabama at Auburn | +26.5L15–31 | 56.5 | L15–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina | -14.5L20–38 | 51.5 | L20–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | South Alabama at North Texas | +13.5L22–36 | 63.5 | L22–36 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | South Alabama at Troy | -2.5L24–31 | 46.5 | L24–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/14 | South Alabama vs Arkansas State | -8.5L14–15 | 57.5 | L14–15 | U | N |
| Thu 10/23 | South Alabama at Georgia State | -5.5W38–31 | 54.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | South Alabama vs Louisiana | -3.5L22–31 | 52.5 | L22–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | South Alabama at UL Monroe | -4.0W26–14 | 49.5 | W26–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | South Alabama vs Southern Miss | +2.5W42–35 | 53.0 | W42–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | South Alabama at Texas State | +9.5L26–49 | 62.5 | L26–49 | O | N |
Auburn 2025 Schedule
Auburn's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Auburn at Baylor | -1.5W38–24 | 57.5 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Auburn vs Ball State | -43.0W42–3 | 52.5 | W42–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Auburn vs South Alabama | -26.5W31–15 | 56.5 | W31–15 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Auburn at Oklahoma | +6.5L17–24 | 47.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Auburn at Texas A&M | +6.5L10–16 | 51.5 | L10–16 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Auburn vs Georgia | +4.5L10–20 | 45.5 | L10–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Auburn vs Missouri | +1.5L17–23 | 43.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Auburn at Arkansas | +2.5W33–24 | 55.5 | W33–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Auburn vs Kentucky | -11.5L3–10 | 44.5 | L3–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Auburn at Vanderbilt | +6.0L38–45 | 46.5 | L38–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Auburn vs Mercer | -26.5W62–17 | 51.5 | W62–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Auburn vs Alabama | +6.5L20–27 | 48.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Auburn
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Auburn
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Auburn
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Auburn Edge
Auburn +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Auburn Edge
Auburn +28.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Auburn
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Auburn
97.1 — 1.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Auburn won by 16
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Auburn with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
South Alabama
Major Applewhite #1
6–6 (50%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Rob Ezell
Yr 2
#1
DC
Will Windham
Yr 2
#1
Auburn
Hugh Freeze #1
11–14 (44%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Derrick Nix
Yr 2
#1
DC
D. J. Durkin
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓