Sat, Oct 4 2025
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Veterans Memorial Stadium
Troy, AL
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
South Alabama✈ 145 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Troy,
while Game Control favors South Alabama.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Troy wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
South Alabama wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
South Alabama -2.5
O/U 46.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Troy
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
South Alabama 2025 Schedule
South Alabama's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | South Alabama vs Morgan State | -28.5W38–21 | 51.5 | W38–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | South Alabama vs Tulane | +13.5L31–33 | 51.5 | L31–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | South Alabama at Auburn | +26.5L15–31 | 56.5 | L15–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina | -14.5L20–38 | 51.5 | L20–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | South Alabama at North Texas | +13.5L22–36 | 63.5 | L22–36 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | South Alabama at Troy | -2.5L24–31 | 46.5 | L24–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/14 | South Alabama vs Arkansas State | -8.5L14–15 | 57.5 | L14–15 | U | N |
| Thu 10/23 | South Alabama at Georgia State | -5.5W38–31 | 54.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | South Alabama vs Louisiana | -3.5L22–31 | 52.5 | L22–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | South Alabama at UL Monroe | -4.0W26–14 | 49.5 | W26–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | South Alabama vs Southern Miss | +2.5W42–35 | 53.0 | W42–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | South Alabama at Texas State | +9.5L26–49 | 62.5 | L26–49 | O | N |
Troy 2025 Schedule
Troy's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Troy vs Nicholls | -16.5W38–20 | 46.5 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Troy at Clemson | +31.0L16–27 | 51.5 | L16–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Troy vs Memphis | +4.5L7–28 | 51.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Troy at Buffalo | +5.5W21–17 | 43.5 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Troy vs South Alabama | +2.5W31–24 | 46.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Troy at Texas State | +7.5W48–41 | 53.5 | W48–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Troy at UL Monroe | -4.5W37–14 | 45.5 | W37–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Troy vs Louisiana | -7.0W35–23 | 47.5 | W35–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Troy vs Arkansas State | -7.5L10–23 | 52.5 | L10–23 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/13 | Troy at Old Dominion | +9.5L0–33 | 53.5 | L0–33 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Troy vs Georgia State | -9.5W31–19 | 51.0 | W31–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Troy at Southern Miss | +6.5W28–18 | 50.5 | W28–18 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/5 | Troy at James Madison | +24.5L14–31 | 47.5 | L14–31 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/16 | Troy vs Jacksonville State | +3.0L13–17 | 47.5 | L13–17 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Troy
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Troy Edge
Troy +0.08
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Alabama Edge
South Alabama +4.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Troy
53.1 — 14.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Troy won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
South Alabama
Major Applewhite #1
6–6 (50%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Rob Ezell
Yr 2
#1
DC
Will Windham
Yr 2
#1
Troy
Gerad Parker #1
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Sean Reagan
Yr 2
#1
DC
Dontae Wright
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓