Thu, Oct 23 2025
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Georgia State Stadium
Atlanta, GA
·
Turf
·
24,333 cap
South Alabama✈ 299 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
South Alabama
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
South Alabama entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
South Alabama wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
South Alabama wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
South Alabama -5.5
O/U 54.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → South Alabama
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
South Alabama 2025 Schedule
South Alabama's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | South Alabama vs Morgan State | -28.5W38–21 | 51.5 | W38–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | South Alabama vs Tulane | +13.5L31–33 | 51.5 | L31–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | South Alabama at Auburn | +26.5L15–31 | 56.5 | L15–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina | -14.5L20–38 | 51.5 | L20–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | South Alabama at North Texas | +13.5L22–36 | 63.5 | L22–36 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | South Alabama at Troy | -2.5L24–31 | 46.5 | L24–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/14 | South Alabama vs Arkansas State | -8.5L14–15 | 57.5 | L14–15 | U | N |
| Thu 10/23 | South Alabama at Georgia State | -5.5W38–31 | 54.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | South Alabama vs Louisiana | -3.5L22–31 | 52.5 | L22–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | South Alabama at UL Monroe | -4.0W26–14 | 49.5 | W26–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | South Alabama vs Southern Miss | +2.5W42–35 | 53.0 | W42–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | South Alabama at Texas State | +9.5L26–49 | 62.5 | L26–49 | O | N |
Georgia State 2025 Schedule
Georgia State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Georgia State at Ole Miss | +38.5L7–63 | 62.5 | L7–63 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Georgia State vs Memphis | +14.5L16–38 | 57.5 | L16–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Georgia State vs Murray State | -31.5W37–21 | 63.5 | W37–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Georgia State at Vanderbilt | +27.5L21–70 | 53.5 | L21–70 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Georgia State vs James Madison | +19.5L7–14 | 52.5 | L7–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Georgia State vs App State | +3.0L20–41 | 55.5 | L20–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Georgia State at Georgia Southern | +6.5L24–41 | 58.5 | L24–41 | O | N |
| Thu 10/23 | Georgia State vs South Alabama | +5.5L31–38 | 54.5 | L31–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Georgia State at Coastal Carolina | +7.0L27–40 | 56.5 | L27–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Georgia State vs Marshall | +9.5L18–30 | 59.5 | L18–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Georgia State at Troy | +9.5L19–31 | 51.0 | L19–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Georgia State at Old Dominion | +29.0L10–27 | 58.5 | L10–27 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ South Alabama
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ South Alabama
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Alabama Edge
South Alabama +0.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Alabama Edge
South Alabama +2.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
South Alabama
15.1 — 66.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
South Alabama won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on South Alabama, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
South Alabama
Major Applewhite #1
6–6 (50%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Rob Ezell
Yr 2
#1
DC
Will Windham
Yr 2
#1
Georgia State
Dell McGee #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jim Chaney
Yr 2
#1
DC
Travis Pearson
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓