Sat, Sep 6 2025
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Hancock Whitney Stadium
Mobile, AL
·
Turf
·
25,000 cap
Tulane✈ 732 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Tulane wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Tulane -13.5
O/U 51.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Tulane
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Tulane 2025 Schedule
Tulane's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Tulane vs Northwestern | -6.5W23–3 | 47.5 | W23–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Tulane at South Alabama | -13.5W33–31 | 51.5 | W33–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Tulane vs Duke | -1.5W34–27 | 52.5 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Tulane at Ole Miss | +12.5L10–45 | 61.5 | L10–45 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Tulane at Tulsa | -14.5W31–14 | 52.5 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/9 | Tulane vs East Carolina | -7.0W26–19 | 53.5 | W26–19 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Tulane vs Army | -10.0W24–17 | 44.5 | W24–17 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/30 | Tulane at UTSA | -5.5L26–48 | 54.5 | L26–48 | O | N |
| Fri 11/7 | Tulane at Memphis | +3.0W38–32 | 53.5 | W38–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Tulane vs Florida Atlantic | -16.5W35–24 | 60.5 | W35–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Tulane at Temple | -7.5W37–13 | 54.5 | W37–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Tulane vs Charlotte | -31.5W27–0 | 52.5 | W27–0 | U | N |
| Fri 12/5 | Tulane vs North Texas | +1.5W34–21 | 66.5 | W34–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/20 | Tulane at Ole Miss | +17.5L10–41 | 57.5 | L10–41 | U | N |
South Alabama 2025 Schedule
South Alabama's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | South Alabama vs Morgan State | -28.5W38–21 | 51.5 | W38–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | South Alabama vs Tulane | +13.5L31–33 | 51.5 | L31–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | South Alabama at Auburn | +26.5L15–31 | 56.5 | L15–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina | -14.5L20–38 | 51.5 | L20–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | South Alabama at North Texas | +13.5L22–36 | 63.5 | L22–36 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | South Alabama at Troy | -2.5L24–31 | 46.5 | L24–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/14 | South Alabama vs Arkansas State | -8.5L14–15 | 57.5 | L14–15 | U | N |
| Thu 10/23 | South Alabama at Georgia State | -5.5W38–31 | 54.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | South Alabama vs Louisiana | -3.5L22–31 | 52.5 | L22–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | South Alabama at UL Monroe | -4.0W26–14 | 49.5 | W26–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | South Alabama vs Southern Miss | +2.5W42–35 | 53.0 | W42–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | South Alabama at Texas State | +9.5L26–49 | 62.5 | L26–49 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Tulane
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Tulane
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tulane
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Tulane Edge
Tulane +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Tulane Edge
Tulane +4.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tulane
1 — 4 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Tulane
10.1 — 77.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Tulane won by 2
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Tulane
Jon Sumrall #1
9–4 (69%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Joe Craddock
Yr 2
#1
DC
Greg Gasparato
Yr 2
#1
South Alabama
Major Applewhite #1
6–6 (50%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Rob Ezell
Yr 2
#1
DC
Will Windham
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓