Matchup Prediction
UConn
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
UConn entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
UConn wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
UConn wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
UConn -10.5
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UConn
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
UConn 2025 Schedule
UConn's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | UConn vs Central Connecticut | -29.5W59–13 | 51.5 | W59–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | UConn at Syracuse | +7.0L20–27 | 57.5 | L20–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | UConn at Delaware | -8.5L41–44 | 52.5 | L41–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | UConn vs Ball State | -21.0W31–25 | 53.5 | W31–25 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | UConn at Buffalo | -3.0W20–17 | 51.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | UConn vs Florida International | -7.0W51–10 | 52.5 | W51–10 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/18 | UConn at Boston College | -2.5W38–23 | 58.5 | W38–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | UConn at Rice | -10.5L34–37 | 48.5 | L34–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | UConn vs UAB | -10.0W38–19 | 61.5 | W38–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | UConn vs Duke | +7.5W37–34 | 63.5 | W37–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | UConn vs Air Force | -7.5W26–16 | 64.5 | W26–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | UConn at Florida Atlantic | -6.0W48–45 | 64.0 | W48–45 | O | N |
| Sat 12/27 | UConn vs Army | +5.5L16–41 | 41.5 | L16–41 | O | N |
Rice 2025 Schedule
Rice's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Rice at Louisiana | +14.5W14–12 | 49.5 | W14–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Rice vs Houston | +13.5L9–35 | 38.5 | L9–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Rice vs Prairie View A&M | -29.5W38–17 | 48.5 | W38–17 | O | N |
| Thu 9/18 | Rice at Charlotte | -1.5W28–17 | 41.5 | W28–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Rice at Navy | +14.0L13–21 | 45.5 | L13–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Rice vs Florida Atlantic | -4.5L21–27 | 54.5 | L21–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Rice at UTSA | +8.5L13–61 | 48.5 | L13–61 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Rice vs UConn | +10.5W37–34 | 48.5 | W37–34 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/31 | Rice vs Memphis | +13.5L14–38 | 48.5 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Rice vs UAB | +1.5W24–17 | 51.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Rice vs North Texas | +18.5L24–56 | 57.0 | L24–56 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Rice at South Florida | +28.5L3–52 | 57.5 | L3–52 | U | N |
| Fri 1/2 | Rice vs Texas State | +19.5L10–41 | 55.5 | L10–41 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UConn
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UConn
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UConn
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UConn Edge
UConn +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UConn Edge
UConn +33.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Rice
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
UConn
25.0 — 40.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Rice won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on UConn with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
UConn
Jim L. Mora #1
17–20 (46%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Gordon Sammis
Yr 2
#1
DC
Matt Brock
Yr 2
#1
Rice
Scott Abell #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Vince Munch
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jon Kay
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓