Air Force at San Diego State - 2018 Matchup Preview

Air Force Falcons at San Diego State Aztecs

Friday, October 12th 2018 (9:00 PM EDT)
San Diego State -11 (43.5)
San Diego State 21 - Air Force: 17 (Mountain West)

Falcons (5 - 7) (6 - 4 - 2)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (26 - 31 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Rain Predicted
AFA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -6.5 (SP+ SDSU -8)
Projected Score: AFA: 24 - SDSU: 27 (51)
SDSU Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
AFA Travel: 809 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Aztecs (7 - 6) (3 - 10 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (24 - 20 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
SDSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2018 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/1	Air Force vs Stony Brook	-14.5	57.5	W 38 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/8	Air Force at Florida Atlantic	+8.0	61.0	L 26 - 33	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/22	Air Force at Utah State	+10.0	59.5	L 32 - 42	O	Y
Sat 9/29	Air Force vs Nevada	-3.5	64.0	L 25 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/6	Air Force vs Navy	+2.5	47.0	W 35 - 7	U	Y
Fri 10/12	Air Force at San Diego State	+11.0	43.5	L 17 - 21	U	Y
Fri 10/19	Air Force at UNLV	-9.5	55.5	W 41 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/27	Air Force vs Boise State	+10.0	58.0	L 38 - 48	O	Y
Sat 11/3	Air Force at Army	+4.5	41.5	L 14 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/10	Air Force vs New Mexico	-14.0	55.0	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/17	Air Force at Wyoming	+3.0	42.5	L 27 - 35	O	N
Thu 11/22	Air Force vs Colorado State	-14.5	64.0	W 27 - 19	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

San Diego State's 2018 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/31	San Diego State at Stanford	+13.5	49.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/8	San Diego State vs Sacramento State	-25.5	58.5	W 28 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/15	San Diego State vs Arizona State	+4.5	48.5	W 28 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/22	San Diego State vs Eastern Michigan	-13.0	48.5	W 23 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/6	San Diego State at Boise State	+13.5	50.0	W 19 - 13	U	Y
Fri 10/12	San Diego State vs Air Force	-11.0	43.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/20	San Diego State vs San José State	-25.5	44.5	W 16 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/27	San Diego State at Nevada	+1.0	45.5	L 24 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/3	San Diego State at New Mexico	-12.0	45.5	W 31 - 23	O	N
Sat 11/10	San Diego State vs UNLV	-24.0	51.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/17	San Diego State at Fresno State	+13.0	42.5	L 14 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/24	San Diego State vs Hawai'i	-18.0	54.0	L 30 - 31	O	N
Wed 12/19	San Diego State vs Ohio	+2.5	49.0	L 0 - 27	U	N

Important Stats (2018)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	.2	46%	30.2	46%	3.01	284	45%	131	3.71	.18	40%	25.8	35%	46%	3.78	43.4	1.3	1.2
SDSU	.13	39%	20.6	38%	2.73	162	38%	187	2.75	.11	39%	22.2	37%	39%	3.36	66.3	1.3	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)		45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)		41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1
SDSU	#108 (.12)	37% (120)		37% (124)	3 (78)	129	38% (109)	206	3.44 (107)	#103 (.23)	46% (113)		49% (117)	43% (98)	4.28 (111)	81.8	0.8	1

Overall Stats 2018

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	12	30.2	26.2	46.4%	3.71	1.3	22	415	284	131	4.8	79%	20%	46%	45%	11%	.2
SDSU Defense	13	22.2	20.4	39%	3.36	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	37%	39%	16%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	12	25.8	30.5	40.4%	3.78	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	35%	46%	13%	.18
SDSU Offense	13	20.6	24.3	39%	2.75	1.3	17	349	162	187	4.1	58%	39%	38%	38%	18%	.13

Additional Stats 2018

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	12	34:13	22	41%	62%	4.5	43.4	1.3	1.2	4.3	1	3	27.8
San Diego State	13	30:12	17.3	35%	56%	7.2	66.3	1.3	1.2	5.2	2	1	27.6

Run Game Stats (2018)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	12	79%	46%	59.4	283.7	4.8	33	.13	3.01	78%	8%	0.94
SDSU Defense	13	49%	37%	-	-	-	-	-.04	2.35	67%	9%	0.86

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	12	53%	35%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.4	69%	9%	1.06
SDSU Offense	13	58%	38%	39.9	161.7	4.1	16	.03	2.73	65%	12%	0.96

Pass Game Stats (2018)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	12	20%	45%	7.8	14	131.3	9.4	17	10	5	.49	1.9	25%	31%	.36	3%	2
SDSU Defense	13	49%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.28	1.7	34%	32%	.34	7%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	12	46%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.38	1.8	36%	34%	.34	4%	2.1
SDSU Offense	13	39%	38%	12.8	23.9	187.2	7.8	14.7	14	6	.28	1.9	38%	32%	.21	6%	1.6

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating: #129
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Air Force's 2018 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #85
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #67
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #90

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: San Diego State: 5.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -1.8 San Diego State: 6.0

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 5.5 NR
San Diego State's Offense Rating: NR
San Diego State's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating: #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
San Diego State's 2018 Expected Record: -
San Diego State's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.0 #47
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #92
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #24

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.2
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.5

Air Force's 2018 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 2
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 2
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
San Diego State 27
Air Force 24

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
San Diego State 29
Air Force 23

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 25
San Diego State 25

Total Points: 50

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.3
Defense: 22.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.4

San Diego State's 2018 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 3 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 6 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/30	San Diego State	20	Air Force	31	Air Force -6.5	Air Force	43.5	Over
2023	09/30	Air Force	49	San Diego State	10	Air Force -10.5	Air Force	43.5	Over
2022	11/26	San Diego State	3	Air Force	13	Air Force -2	Air Force	43.5	Under
2021	10/23	Air Force	14	San Diego State	20	Air Force -3	San Diego State	38.5	Under
2018	10/12	San Diego State	21	Air Force	17	San Diego State -11	Air Force	43.5	Under
2017	09/23	Air Force	24	San Diego State	28	San Diego State -1.5	San Diego State	48.0	Over
2015	12/05	San Diego State	27	Air Force	24	San Diego State -3.5	Air Force	46.5	Over
2014	11/21	San Diego State	30	Air Force	14	San Diego State -2	San Diego State	0
2013	10/10	Air Force	20	San Diego State	27	San Diego State -3.5	San Diego State	0
2012	11/10	San Diego State	28	Air Force	9
2011	10/13	Air Force	27	San Diego State	41
2010	10/16	San Diego State	27	Air Force	25
2009	09/26	Air Force	26	San Diego State	14
2008	10/11	San Diego State	10	Air Force	35
2007	11/17	Air Force	55	San Diego State	23
2006	10/21	San Diego State	19	Air Force	12
2005	09/10	Air Force	41	San Diego State	29
2004	11/13	Air Force	31	San Diego State	37
2003	11/22	San Diego State	24	Air Force	3
2001	09/29	San Diego State	21	Air Force	45
2000	11/17	Air Force	45	San Diego State	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San Diego State	12	4	4 Overs
Air Force	9	5	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 9	2 - 7	2 - 3	0 - 4
Road Teams	9 - 12	7 - 2	4 - 0	3 - 2

(#) AFA at (#) SDSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	SDSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#85	#47
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#129	#79
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Air Force Injury Report

San Diego State Injury Report

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	SDSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#67	#24
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

San Diego State on Offense


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#92	#90
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

San Diego State Run Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

San Diego State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

AFA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Qualcomm Stadium
Conditions: Rain
Temp: 70° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 7
San Diego State -11.0 (43.5)
San Diego State won vs Air Force this year (21-17)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat San Diego State last year (31-20)
Air Force beat San Diego State in 2023 (49-10)
Air Force beat San Diego State in 2022 (13-3)

AFA's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

SDSU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD