Louisville at North Carolina - 2017 Matchup Preview

Louisville Cardinals at North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, September 9th 2017 (12:00 PM EDT)
Louisville -11.5 (65.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Louisville 47 - North Carolina: 35 (ACC)

Cardinals (8 - 5) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 38 - 27 (36 - 32 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

LOU 2nd straight Road Game
UNC 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -5 (SP+ LOU -15)
Projected Score: LOU: 27 - UNC: 30 (57)
LOU Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
LOU Travel: 403 miles

Tar Heels (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 26 - 31 (27 - 28 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LOU Players
UNC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Louisville's 2017 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Louisville vs Purdue	-25.5	67.5	W 35 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/9	Louisville at North Carolina	-11.5	65.5	W 47 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Louisville vs Clemson	+3.0	61.0	L 21 - 47	O	N
Sat 9/23	Louisville vs Kent State	-41.5	56.0	W 42 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/30	Louisville vs Murray State	-49.0	63.5	W 55 - 10	O	N
Thu 10/5	Louisville at NC State	-3.5	67.0	L 25 - 39	U	N
Sat 10/14	Louisville vs Boston College	-20.0	60.0	L 42 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/21	Louisville at Florida State	+7.0	58.0	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Louisville at Wake Forest	-3.0	66.5	L 32 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/11	Louisville vs Virginia	-14.0	66.5	W 38 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Louisville vs Syracuse	-15.0	69.0	W 56 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Louisville at Kentucky	-10.0	68.0	W 44 - 17	U	Y
Sat 12/30	Louisville vs Mississippi State	-6.5	62.0	L 27 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule

North Carolina's 2017 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	North Carolina vs California	-12.5	57.5	L 30 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/9	North Carolina vs Louisville	+11.5	65.5	L 35 - 47	O	N
Sat 9/16	North Carolina at Old Dominion	-11.5	56.0	W 53 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/23	North Carolina vs Duke	-1.5	61.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/30	North Carolina at Georgia Tech	+10.0	58.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/7	North Carolina vs Notre Dame	+13.0	63.5	L 10 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/14	North Carolina vs Virginia	+3.0	54.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/21	North Carolina at Virginia Tech	+20.0	52.5	L 7 - 59	O	N
Sat 10/28	North Carolina vs Miami	+21.0	56.0	L 19 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/9	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	+10.0	50.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/18	North Carolina vs Western Carolina	-21.0
Sat 11/25	North Carolina at NC State	+14.5	57.0	L 21 - 33	U	Y

Important Stats (2017)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU	.33	50%	38.1	52%	3.62	245	47%	300	4.05	.16	46%	27.4	46%	44%	3.15	51.1	1.6	1.7
UNC	.09	41%	26	41%	2.63	144	40%	225	3.39	.21	45%	31.3	48%	40%	3.28	72.7	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU	#15 (.31)	46% (26)		48% (20)	3.09 (56)	173	45% (30)	251	4.27 (31)	#73 (.18)	40% (49)		40% (44)	40% (65)	3.98 (87)	46.1	0.8	1.2
UNC	#65 (.2)	42% (80)		47% (34)	3.32 (22)	175	37% (114)	216	4.08 (52)	#70 (.17)	41% (53)		44% (82)	37% (26)	4.01 (90)	59.8	1.2	1.2

Overall Stats 2017

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Offense	13	38.1	35.8	50.1%	4.05	1.6	27	545	245	300	6.4	47%	51%	52%	47%	15%	.33
UNC Defense	12	31.3	28	45%	3.28	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	55%	43%	48%	40%	17%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Defense	13	27.4	32.2	45.9%	3.15	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	46%	44%	18%	.16
UNC Offense	12	26	27.1	40.8%	3.39	1.8	20	370	144	225	4.1	46%	53%	41%	40%	19%	.09

Additional Stats 2017

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Louisville	13	30:25	27.1	44%	63%	6.3	51.1	1.6	1.7	6.1	2.1	2	28.3
North Carolina	12	26:32	19.6	30%	62%	7.8	72.7	1.8	1.3	6	1.9	2	32.1

Run Game Stats (2017)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Offense	13	47%	52%	38.1	245.1	6.4	33	.34	3.62	70%	9%	1.14
UNC Defense	12	55%	48%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.04	74%	10%	0.98

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Defense	13	52%	46%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.86	74%	11%	0.89
UNC Offense	12	46%	41%	35.6	144.2	4.1	17	.04	2.63	74%	11%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2017)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Offense	13	51%	47%	21.3	35.7	299.8	8.4	14.1	29	10	.34	1.6	31%	44%	.5	6%	1.8
UNC Defense	12	43%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.29	1.7	32%	36%	.4	7%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Defense	13	47%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.25	1.6	30%	31%	.29	7%	2
UNC Offense	12	53%	40%	18.4	33.9	225.4	6.7	12.2	20	16	.15	1.6	33%	33%	.22	8%	1.8

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: NR
Louisville's Offense Rating: NR
Louisville's Defense Rating: NR
2017 Talent Rating: #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Louisville's 2017 Expected Record: -
Louisville's 2017 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.2 #14
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.3 #2
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.9 #47

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: North Carolina: 4.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 19.2 North Carolina: 4.3

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 4.65 NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2017 Talent Rating: #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
North Carolina's 2017 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2017 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3 #55
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #56
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 38.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 35.8
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.2

Louisville's 2017 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
North Carolina 30
Louisville 27

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
North Carolina 33
Louisville 21

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Louisville 33
North Carolina 28

Total Points: 61

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.1
Defense: 31.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 28

North Carolina's 2017 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2017	09/09	North Carolina	35	Louisville	47	Louisville -11.5	Louisville	65.5	Over
2012	09/15	Louisville	39	North Carolina	34
2011	10/08	North Carolina	14	Louisville	7
2005	10/08	Louisville	69	North Carolina	14
2004	09/25	North Carolina	0	Louisville	34

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Carolina	1	0	1 Overs
Louisville	4	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 3	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

(#) LOU at (#) UNC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LOU	UNC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#14	#55
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#36	#27
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Louisville Injury Report

North Carolina Injury Report

Louisville on Offense


CategoryCat	LOU Off	UNC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#2	#58
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Louisville Run Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Louisville Pass Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

North Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	UNC Off	LOU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#56	#47
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

North Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

North Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'17 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

LOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'17 Profile: Down to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 72° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 2
Louisville 11.5 (65.5)
Louisville won at North Carolina this year (47-35)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

LOU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UNC's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD