Eastern Michigan at Kentucky Week 3 College Football Matchup Eastern Michigan at Kentucky Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 13 2025 · Week 3 · 🏟 Commonwealth Stadium Lexington, KY · Turf · 61,000 cap
Eastern Michigan✈ 296 miSame TZ
23 48
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Eastern Michigan
16
Kentucky
35
P&R Line Kentucky -19.5
P&R Total O/U 50.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Kentucky -26.5 · O/U 49.5
Matchup Prediction
Kentucky has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kentucky entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Kentucky wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Kentucky wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Kentucky -26.5
O/U 49.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Eastern Michigan · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Kentucky 3rd straight Home Game
Eastern Michigan 2025 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Eastern Michigan at Texas State+14.0L27–5258.5L27–52ON
Sat 9/6Eastern Michigan vs Long Island University-22.5L23–2854.5L23–28UN
Sat 9/13Eastern Michigan at Kentucky+26.5L23–4849.5L23–48OY
Sat 9/20Eastern Michigan vs Louisiana+2.5W34–3151.5W34–31OY
Sat 9/27Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan+3.0L13–2455.5L13–24UN
Sat 10/4Eastern Michigan at Buffalo+9.5L30–3153.5L30–31OY
Sat 10/11Eastern Michigan vs Northern Illinois+1.5W16–1048.5W16–10UY
Sat 10/18Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH)+12.5L30–4447.5L30–44ON
Sat 10/25Eastern Michigan vs Ohio+11.5L21–2860.5L21–28UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Eastern Michigan vs Bowling Green-3.0W27–2149.5W27–21UY
Sat 11/15Eastern Michigan at Ball State-2.5W24–948.5W24–9UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/25Eastern Michigan vs Western Michigan+10.0L21–3149.0L21–31OY
Kentucky 2025 Schedule
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Kentucky vs Toledo-10.0W24–1648.5W24–16UN
Sat 9/6Kentucky vs Ole Miss+8.0L23–3051.5L23–30OY
Sat 9/13Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan-26.5W48–2349.5W48–23ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Kentucky at South Carolina+5.5L13–3546.5L13–35ON
Sat 10/4Kentucky at Georgia+19.5L14–3548.5L14–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Kentucky vs Texas+12.5L13–1645.5L13–16UY
Sat 10/25Kentucky vs Tennessee+7.5L34–5655.5L34–56ON
Sat 11/1Kentucky at Auburn+11.5W10–344.5W10–3UY
Sat 11/8Kentucky vs Florida+4.5W38–744.5W38–7OY
Sat 11/15Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech-22.5W42–1052.5W42–10UY
Sat 11/22Kentucky at Vanderbilt+7.0L17–4553.5L17–45ON
Sat 11/29Kentucky at Louisville+1.0L0–4145.5L0–41UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Eastern Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Eastern Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Eastern Michigan #51
+0.377
Kentucky #115
+0.319
Eastern Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Eastern Michigan #56
+0.588
Kentucky #101
+0.540
Eastern Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Eastern Michigan #134
0.106
Kentucky #93
0.147
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kentucky Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Eastern Michigan #45
+7.939
Kentucky #57
+7.726
Eastern Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Eastern Michigan #69
+0.860
Kentucky #81
+0.853
Eastern Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Eastern Michigan #136
75.5
Kentucky #53
70.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kentucky Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kentucky Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Eastern Michigan
-8.6
Kentucky
0.2
Offense Rating
Eastern Michigan
10.2
Kentucky
16.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Eastern Michigan
18.8
Kentucky
16.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kentucky Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Eastern Michigan #107
0.00
Kentucky #80
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Eastern Michigan #114
3.00
Kentucky #83
0.50
Kentucky +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kentucky Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Eastern Michigan #1
10.5
Kentucky #1
56.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Eastern Michigan #106
75.5
Kentucky #95
27.0
Kentucky +45.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kentucky
4 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Kentucky
95.4 — 3.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kentucky won by 25
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kentucky with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
57–75 (43%) · Yr 12 at school
OC Mike Piatkowski Yr 2 #1
DC Ben Needham Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kentucky
Mark Stoops #1
77–73 (51%) · Yr 13 at school
OC Bush Hamdan Yr 2 #1
DC Brad White Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself