Sat, Nov 11 2023
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Husky Stadium
Seattle, WA
·
Turf
·
70,500 cap
Utah✈ 702 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Washington
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Washington entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Washington wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Washington wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Washington -9.5
O/U 48.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Washington
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Utah 2023 Schedule
Utah's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | Utah vs Florida | -5.5W24–11 | 44.5 | W24–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Utah at Baylor | -7.0W20–13 | 46.5 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Utah vs Weber State | -26.5W31–7 | 44.0 | W31–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Utah vs UCLA | -3.0W14–7 | 50.5 | W14–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/29 | Utah at Oregon State | +4.0L7–21 | 43.0 | L7–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Utah vs California | -9.0W34–14 | 42.5 | W34–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Utah at USC | +7.5W34–32 | 51.5 | W34–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Utah vs Oregon | +6.5L6–35 | 47.5 | L6–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Utah vs Arizona State | -11.0W55–3 | 40.5 | W55–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Utah at Washington | +9.5L28–35 | 48.5 | L28–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Utah at Arizona | +2.5L18–42 | 45.5 | L18–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Utah vs Colorado | -21.5W23–17 | 43.5 | W23–17 | U | N |
| Sat 12/23 | Utah vs Northwestern | -6.5L7–14 | 44.5 | L7–14 | U | N |
Washington 2023 Schedule
Washington's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Washington vs Boise State | -14.0W56–19 | 59.0 | W56–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Washington vs Tulsa | -34.0W43–10 | 66.5 | W43–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Washington at Michigan State | -14.5W41–7 | 57.0 | W41–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Washington vs California | -21.0W59–32 | 55.5 | W59–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Washington at Arizona | -20.0W31–24 | 66.0 | W31–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Washington vs Oregon | -3.0W36–33 | 67.0 | W36–33 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Washington vs Arizona State | -28.0W15–7 | 59.5 | W15–7 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Washington at Stanford | -27.5W42–33 | 62.0 | W42–33 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Washington at USC | -3.0W52–42 | 76.0 | W52–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Washington vs Utah | -9.5W35–28 | 48.5 | W35–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Washington at Oregon State | +1.5W22–20 | 62.5 | W22–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Washington vs Washington State | -16.0W24–21 | 68.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Fri 12/1 | Washington vs Oregon | +9.0W34–31 | 67.0 | W34–31 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/1 | Washington vs Texas | +3.0W37–31 | 61.5 | W37–31 | O | Y |
| Mon 1/8 | Washington vs Michigan | +5.5L13–34 | 55.5 | L13–34 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Washington
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Washington Edge
Washington +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Washington Edge
Washington +16.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Washington
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Washington
42.0 — 26.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Washington won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Washington with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Utah
Kyle Whittingham #1
157–74 (68%)
· Yr 19 at school
OC
Andy Ludwig
Yr 3
#1
DC
Morgan Scalley
Yr 3
#1
Washington
Kalen DeBoer #1
14–2 (88%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Ryan Grubb
Yr 2
#1
DC
William Inge
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓