Sun, Sep 17 2023
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Folsom Field
Boulder, CO
·
Turf
·
50,183 cap
Matchup Prediction
Colorado
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Colorado entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Colorado wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Colorado wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Colorado -23
O/U 63.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Colorado State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Colorado State 2023 Schedule
Colorado State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Colorado State vs Washington State | +9.5L24–50 | 54.0 | L24–50 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/16 | Colorado State at Colorado | +23.0L35–43 | 63.0 | L35–43 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Colorado State at Middle Tennessee | +3.5W31–23 | 50.0 | W31–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Colorado State vs Utah Tech | -19 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/7 | Colorado State at Utah State | -3.0L24–44 | 62.0 | L24–44 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Colorado State vs Boise State | +7.5W31–30 | 60.0 | W31–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Colorado State at UNLV | +6.5L23–25 | 60.0 | L23–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Colorado State vs Air Force | +14.5L13–30 | 47.0 | L13–30 | U | N |
| Fri 11/3 | Colorado State at Wyoming | +6.0L15–24 | 41.0 | L15–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Colorado State vs San Diego State | -3.5W22–19 | 46.5 | W22–19 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Colorado State vs Nevada | -12.5W30–20 | 45.5 | W30–20 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Colorado State at Hawai'i | -6.0L24–27 | 54.0 | L24–27 | U | N |
Colorado 2023 Schedule
Colorado's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Colorado at TCU | +20.5W45–42 | 59.5 | W45–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Colorado vs Nebraska | -2.5W36–14 | 56.5 | W36–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Colorado vs Colorado State | -23.0W43–35 | 63.0 | W43–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Colorado at Oregon | +21.0L6–42 | 70.0 | L6–42 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Colorado vs USC | +22.0L41–48 | 74.5 | L41–48 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Colorado at Arizona State | -3.0W27–24 | 58.0 | W27–24 | U | N |
| Fri 10/13 | Colorado vs Stanford | -13.0L43–46 | 59.0 | L43–46 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Colorado at UCLA | +14.0L16–28 | 60.0 | L16–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Colorado vs Oregon State | +13.0L19–26 | 60.5 | L19–26 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Colorado vs Arizona | +6.0L31–34 | 55.5 | L31–34 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/17 | Colorado at Washington State | +4.5L14–56 | 59.5 | L14–56 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Colorado at Utah | +21.5L17–23 | 43.5 | L17–23 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Colorado State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Colorado State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Colorado State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Colorado Edge
Colorado +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Colorado Edge
Colorado +39.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Colorado
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Colorado State
15.2 — 56.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Colorado won by 8
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Colorado with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Colorado State
Jay Norvell #1
3–11 (21%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Matt Mumme
Yr 2
#1
DC
Freddie Banks
Yr 2
#1
Colorado
Deion Sanders #1
3–0 (100%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Sean Lewis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Charles Kelly
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓