Sat, Sep 9 2023
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium Frank Broyles Field
Fayetteville, AR
·
Turf
·
72,000 cap
Kent State✈ 776 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Arkansas wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Arkansas -38
O/U 57.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Arkansas
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kent State 2023 Schedule
Kent State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | Kent State at UCF | +35.0L6–56 | 54.0 | L6–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Kent State at Arkansas | +38.0L6–28 | 57.5 | L6–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Kent State vs Central Connecticut | -21.5W38–10 | 46.5 | W38–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Kent State at Fresno State | +27.5L10–53 | 47.5 | L10–53 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Kent State vs Miami (OH) | +14.0L3–23 | 51.5 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Kent State at Ohio | +24.5L17–42 | 45.5 | L17–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Kent State at Eastern Michigan | +7.0L14–28 | 40.0 | L14–28 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Kent State vs Buffalo | +6.5L6–24 | 44.0 | L6–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/1 | Kent State at Akron | +4.0L27–31 | 39.0 | L27–31 | O | Y |
| Wed 11/8 | Kent State vs Bowling Green | +10.5L19–49 | 41.5 | L19–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Kent State at Ball State | +10.5L3–34 | 41.5 | L3–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Kent State vs Northern Illinois | +20.5L27–37 | 44.5 | L27–37 | O | Y |
Arkansas 2023 Schedule
Arkansas's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Arkansas vs Western Carolina | -38.0W56–13 | 61.0 | W56–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Arkansas vs Kent State | -38.0W28–6 | 57.5 | W28–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Arkansas vs BYU | -9.0L31–38 | 48.0 | L31–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Arkansas at LSU | +17.5L31–34 | 55.0 | L31–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Arkansas vs Texas A&M | +6.5L22–34 | 53.5 | L22–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Arkansas at Ole Miss | +13.0L20–27 | 61.5 | L20–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Arkansas at Alabama | +19.0L21–24 | 45.0 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Arkansas vs Mississippi State | -6.5L3–7 | 46.5 | L3–7 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | Arkansas at Florida | +4.5W39–36 | 50.0 | W39–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Arkansas vs Auburn | -2.5L10–48 | 46.5 | L10–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Arkansas vs Florida International | -27.5W44–20 | 49.5 | W44–20 | O | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Arkansas vs Missouri | +9.5L14–48 | 53.5 | L14–48 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Arkansas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Arkansas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arkansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Kent State Edge
Kent State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arkansas Edge
Arkansas +93.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Arkansas
54.9 — 25.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Arkansas won by 22
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Arkansas with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Kent State
Kenni Burns #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Matt Johnson
Yr 1
#1
DC
David Duggan
Yr 1
#1
Arkansas
Sam Pittman #1
21–18 (54%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Kenny Guiton
Yr 1
#1
DC
Travis Williams
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓