Sat, Oct 7 2023
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Scott Stadium
Charlottesville, VA
·
Turf
·
61,500 cap
William & Mary✈ 111 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
William & Mary wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Virginia -10
O/U 42.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
William & Mary 2023 Schedule
William & Mary's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | William & Mary at Virginia | +10.0L13–27 | 42.0 | L13–27 | U | N |
Virginia 2023 Schedule
Virginia's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Virginia vs Tennessee | +27.5L13–49 | 56.0 | L13–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Virginia vs James Madison | +6.0L35–36 | 40.0 | L35–36 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/15 | Virginia at Maryland | +16.5L14–42 | 48.5 | L14–42 | O | N |
| Fri 9/22 | Virginia vs NC State | +8.5L21–24 | 47.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Virginia at Boston College | +5.0L24–27 | 52.5 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Virginia vs William & Mary | -10.0W27–13 | 42.0 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Virginia at North Carolina | +24.0W31–27 | 58.0 | W31–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Virginia at Miami | +18.5L26–29 | 48.0 | L26–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Virginia vs Georgia Tech | -2.0L17–45 | 57.5 | L17–45 | O | N |
| Thu 11/9 | Virginia at Louisville | +20.5L24–31 | 49.5 | L24–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Virginia vs Duke | +4.0W30–27 | 48.5 | W30–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Virginia vs Virginia Tech | +2.5L17–55 | 52.5 | L17–55 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
William & Mary Edge
William & Mary +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
William & Mary Edge
William & Mary +30.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓