Sat, Sep 16 2023
·
Week 3
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🏟 Martin Stadium
Pullman, WA
·
Turf
·
32,248 cap
Northern Colorado✈ 760 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Washington State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Washington State -48
O/U 55.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Northern Colorado 2023 Schedule
Northern Colorado's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/16 | Northern Colorado at Washington State | +48.0L21–64 | 55.0 | L21–64 | O | Y |
Washington State 2023 Schedule
Washington State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Washington State at Colorado State | -9.5W50–24 | 54.0 | W50–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Washington State vs Wisconsin | +5.0W31–22 | 58.0 | W31–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Washington State vs Northern Colorado | -48.0W64–21 | 55.0 | W64–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Washington State vs Oregon State | +3.0W38–35 | 58.5 | W38–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | Washington State at UCLA | +3.0L17–25 | 60.0 | L17–25 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Washington State vs Arizona | -7.5L6–44 | 57.5 | L6–44 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Washington State at Oregon | +19.5L24–38 | 60.5 | L24–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Washington State at Arizona State | -4.5L27–38 | 49.0 | L27–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Washington State vs Stanford | -13.0L7–10 | 59.5 | L7–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Washington State at California | +1.5L39–42 | 58.5 | L39–42 | O | N |
| Fri 11/17 | Washington State vs Colorado | -4.5W56–14 | 59.5 | W56–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Washington State at Washington | +16.0L21–24 | 68.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Northern Colorado Edge
Northern Colorado +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Washington State Edge
Washington State +40.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓