Sat, Nov 25 2023
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Sun Devil Stadium
Tempe, AZ
·
Turf
·
56,232 cap
Arizona✈ 100 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Arizona
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Arizona entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Arizona wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Arizona wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Arizona -12.5
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Arizona
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Arizona 2023 Schedule
Arizona's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Arizona vs Northern Arizona | -28.5W38–3 | 61.0 | W38–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Arizona at Mississippi State | +9.0L24–31 | 60.0 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Arizona vs UTEP | -18.0W31–10 | 57.0 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Arizona at Stanford | -13.0W21–20 | 60.0 | W21–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Arizona vs Washington | +20.0L24–31 | 66.0 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Arizona at USC | +21.0L41–43 | 69.5 | L41–43 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Arizona at Washington State | +7.5W44–6 | 57.5 | W44–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Arizona vs Oregon State | +3.0W27–24 | 57.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Arizona vs UCLA | +2.5W27–10 | 50.0 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Arizona at Colorado | -6.0W34–31 | 55.5 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Arizona vs Utah | -2.5W42–18 | 45.5 | W42–18 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Arizona at Arizona State | -12.5W59–23 | 48.5 | W59–23 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/28 | Arizona vs Oklahoma | -2.5W38–24 | 59.5 | W38–24 | O | Y |
Arizona State 2023 Schedule
Arizona State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | Arizona State vs Southern Utah | -34.0W24–21 | 60.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Arizona State vs Oklahoma State | +2.5L15–27 | 53.5 | L15–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Arizona State vs Fresno State | +4.0L0–29 | 48.0 | L0–29 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Arizona State vs USC | +34.5L28–42 | 62.0 | L28–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Arizona State at California | +13.0L21–24 | 47.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Arizona State vs Colorado | +3.0L24–27 | 58.0 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Arizona State at Washington | +28.0L7–15 | 59.5 | L7–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Arizona State vs Washington State | +4.5W38–27 | 49.0 | W38–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Arizona State at Utah | +11.0L3–55 | 40.5 | L3–55 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Arizona State at UCLA | +14.0W17–7 | 45.5 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Arizona State vs Oregon | +21.5L13–49 | 52.5 | L13–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Arizona State vs Arizona | +12.5L23–59 | 48.5 | L23–59 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Arizona
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Arizona
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arizona
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arizona Edge
Arizona +0.90
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arizona Edge
Arizona +21.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arizona
1 — 5 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Arizona
8.0 — 77.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Arizona won by 36
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Arizona with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arizona
Jedd Fisch #1
8–19 (30%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Brennan Carroll
Yr 3
#1
DC
Johnny Nansen
Yr 2
#1
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Beau Baldwin
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Ward
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓