Sat, Nov 4 2023
·
Week 10
·
🏟 SHI Stadium
Piscataway, NJ
·
Turf
·
52,454 cap
Ohio State✈ 6,694 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Ohio State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Ohio State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Ohio State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Ohio State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Ohio State -19
O/U 42.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ohio State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Ohio State 2023 Schedule
Ohio State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Ohio State at Indiana | -30.0W23–3 | 59.0 | W23–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Ohio State vs Youngstown State | -45.5W35–7 | 56.0 | W35–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Ohio State vs Western Kentucky | -29.5W63–10 | 65.0 | W63–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Ohio State at Notre Dame | -3.0W17–14 | 55.5 | W17–14 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | Ohio State vs Maryland | -17.0W37–17 | 56.5 | W37–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Ohio State at Purdue | -17.5W41–7 | 53.0 | W41–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Ohio State vs Penn State | -4.0W20–12 | 47.0 | W20–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Ohio State at Wisconsin | -14.5W24–10 | 48.0 | W24–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Ohio State at Rutgers | -19.0W35–16 | 42.5 | W35–16 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Ohio State vs Michigan State | -30.5W38–3 | 48.5 | W38–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Ohio State vs Minnesota | -27.5W37–3 | 51.5 | W37–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Ohio State at Michigan | +3.0L24–30 | 47.0 | L24–30 | O | N |
| Fri 12/29 | Ohio State vs Missouri | -4.0L3–14 | 51.0 | L3–14 | U | N |
Rutgers 2023 Schedule
Rutgers's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/3 | Rutgers vs Northwestern | -5.0W24–7 | 39.0 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Rutgers vs Temple | -7.5W36–7 | 43.5 | W36–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Rutgers vs Virginia Tech | -6.5W35–16 | 37.5 | W35–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Rutgers at Michigan | +24.0L7–31 | 44.5 | L7–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Rutgers vs Wagner | -46.0W52–3 | 52.5 | W52–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Rutgers at Wisconsin | +12.5L13–24 | 44.0 | L13–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Rutgers vs Michigan State | -4.0W27–24 | 38.5 | W27–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Rutgers at Indiana | -6.0W31–14 | 39.5 | W31–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | Rutgers vs Ohio State | +19.0L16–35 | 42.5 | L16–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Rutgers at Iowa | -2.5L0–22 | 27.5 | L0–22 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Rutgers at Penn State | +19.5L6–27 | 39.5 | L6–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Rutgers vs Maryland | +2.0L24–42 | 45.5 | L24–42 | O | N |
| Thu 12/28 | Rutgers vs Miami | -3.0W31–24 | 41.0 | W31–24 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ohio State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ohio State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ohio State Edge
Ohio State +0.71
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ohio State Edge
Ohio State +12.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Rutgers
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Ohio State
13.8 — 69.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Ohio State won by 19
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ohio State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ohio State
Ryan Day #1
48–6 (89%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Brian Hartline
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jim Knowles
Yr 2
#1
Rutgers
Greg Schiano #1
15–22 (41%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Kirk Ciarrocca
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Harasymiak
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓