Sat, Oct 28 2023
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Beaver Stadium
University Park, PA
·
Turf
·
106,572 cap
Indiana✈ 472 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Penn State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Penn State entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Penn State wins
Strong
Game Control
76%
Penn State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Penn State -31
O/U 45.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Penn State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Indiana 2023 Schedule
Indiana's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Indiana vs Ohio State | +30.0L3–23 | 59.0 | L3–23 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/8 | Indiana vs Indiana State | -31.0W41–7 | 44.0 | W41–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Indiana vs Louisville | +10.0L14–21 | 51.0 | L14–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Indiana vs Akron | -16.5W29–27 | 45.5 | W29–27 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Indiana at Maryland | +14.5L17–44 | 50.0 | L17–44 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Indiana at Michigan | +33.5L7–52 | 45.5 | L7–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Indiana vs Rutgers | +6.0L14–31 | 39.5 | L14–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Indiana at Penn State | +31.0L24–33 | 45.0 | L24–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Indiana vs Wisconsin | +9.5W20–14 | 45.0 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Indiana at Illinois | +4.5L45–48 | 43.5 | L45–48 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Indiana vs Michigan State | -3.5L21–24 | 47.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Indiana at Purdue | +2.5L31–35 | 55.5 | L31–35 | O | N |
Penn State 2023 Schedule
Penn State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Penn State vs West Virginia | -21.0W38–15 | 48.0 | W38–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Penn State vs Delaware | -44.0W63–7 | 55.0 | W63–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Penn State at Illinois | -14.0W30–13 | 47.5 | W30–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Penn State vs Iowa | -14.0W31–0 | 38.5 | W31–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Penn State at Northwestern | -27.0W41–13 | 48.0 | W41–13 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Penn State vs Massachusetts | -42.0W63–0 | 55.0 | W63–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Penn State at Ohio State | +4.0L12–20 | 47.0 | L12–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Penn State vs Indiana | -31.0W33–24 | 45.0 | W33–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Penn State at Maryland | -8.5W51–15 | 50.5 | W51–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Penn State vs Michigan | +4.0L15–24 | 44.5 | L15–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Penn State vs Rutgers | -19.5W27–6 | 39.5 | W27–6 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/24 | Penn State vs Michigan State | -20.0W42–0 | 42.0 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/30 | Penn State vs Ole Miss | -5.5L25–38 | 53.0 | L25–38 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Penn State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Penn State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Penn State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +2.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +44.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Penn State
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Penn State
44.2 — 30.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Penn State won by 9
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Penn State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Indiana
Tom Allen #1
31–42 (43%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Walt Bell
Yr 2
#1
DC
Matt Guerrieri
Yr 1
#1
Penn State
James Franklin #1
81–36 (69%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Mike Yurcich
Yr 3
#1
DC
Manny Diaz
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓