Sat, Sep 16 2023
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Murfreesboro, TN
·
Turf
·
31,000 cap
Murray State✈ 120 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Middle Tennessee
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Middle Tennessee entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Middle Tennessee wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Middle Tennessee wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Middle Tennessee -34.5
O/U 51.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Murray State 2023 Schedule
Murray State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 9/7 | Murray State at Louisville | +43.5L0–56 | 55.5 | L0–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Murray State at Middle Tennessee | +34.5L14–35 | 51.0 | L14–35 | U | Y |
Middle Tennessee 2023 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Middle Tennessee at Alabama | +39.5L7–56 | 52.0 | L7–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Middle Tennessee at Missouri | +21.0L19–23 | 47.5 | L19–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Middle Tennessee vs Murray State | -34.5W35–14 | 51.0 | W35–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Middle Tennessee vs Colorado State | -3.5L23–31 | 50.0 | L23–31 | O | N |
| Thu 9/28 | Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky | +6.5L10–31 | 61.0 | L10–31 | U | N |
| Wed 10/4 | Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State | -2.5L30–45 | 52.0 | L30–45 | O | N |
| Tue 10/10 | Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech | -3.0W31–23 | 53.5 | W31–23 | O | Y |
| Tue 10/17 | Middle Tennessee at Liberty | +16.0L35–42 | 56.5 | L35–42 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State | +3.0L7–13 | 55.5 | L7–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Middle Tennessee vs Florida International | -10.5W40–6 | 50.5 | W40–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Middle Tennessee vs UTEP | -8.5W34–30 | 48.5 | W34–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston | -3.5L20–23 | 49.5 | L20–23 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Middle Tennessee Edge
Middle Tennessee +0.77
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Middle Tennessee Edge
Middle Tennessee +44.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓