Sat, Sep 30 2023
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Neyland Stadium
Knoxville, TN
·
Turf
·
102,455 cap
South Carolina✈ 214 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Tennessee
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Tennessee entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Tennessee wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Tennessee wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Tennessee -12
O/U 59.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Tennessee
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
South Carolina 2023 Schedule
South Carolina's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | South Carolina vs North Carolina | -2.5L17–31 | 63.5 | L17–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | South Carolina vs Furman | -18.0W47–21 | 52.5 | W47–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | South Carolina at Georgia | +27.0L14–24 | 54.5 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | South Carolina vs Mississippi State | -6.0W37–30 | 46.5 | W37–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | South Carolina at Tennessee | +12.0L20–41 | 59.0 | L20–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | South Carolina vs Florida | +1.0L39–41 | 50.0 | L39–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | South Carolina at Missouri | +7.5L12–34 | 57.5 | L12–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | South Carolina at Texas A&M | +17.0L17–30 | 51.5 | L17–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | South Carolina vs Jacksonville State | -15.5W38–28 | 55.0 | W38–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | South Carolina vs Vanderbilt | -13.5W47–6 | 53.5 | W47–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | South Carolina vs Kentucky | -2.5W17–14 | 52.5 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | South Carolina vs Clemson | +7.5L7–16 | 48.0 | L7–16 | U | N |
Tennessee 2023 Schedule
Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Tennessee vs Virginia | -27.5W49–13 | 56.0 | W49–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Tennessee vs Austin Peay | -48.0W30–13 | 65.5 | W30–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Tennessee at Florida | -5.0L16–29 | 57.0 | L16–29 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Tennessee vs UTSA | -24.0W45–14 | 59.0 | W45–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Tennessee vs South Carolina | -12.0W41–20 | 59.0 | W41–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Tennessee vs Texas A&M | -3.0W20–13 | 54.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Tennessee at Alabama | +8.5L20–34 | 47.5 | L20–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Tennessee at Kentucky | -4.0W33–27 | 50.5 | W33–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Tennessee vs UConn | -35.0W59–3 | 55.5 | W59–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Tennessee at Missouri | -1.0L7–36 | 58.5 | L7–36 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Tennessee vs Georgia | +9.0L10–38 | 59.0 | L10–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Tennessee vs Vanderbilt | -27.0W48–24 | 58.0 | W48–24 | O | N |
| Mon 1/1 | Tennessee vs Iowa | -4.5W35–0 | 37.0 | W35–0 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tennessee
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Tennessee Edge
Tennessee +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Tennessee Edge
Tennessee +10.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Tennessee
61.4 — 14.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Tennessee won by 21
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Tennessee. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
16–13 (55%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Dowell Loggains
Yr 1
#1
DC
Clayton White
Yr 3
#1
Tennessee
Josh Heupel #1
20–9 (69%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Joey Halzle
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim Banks
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓