Sat, Nov 19 2022
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
San Marcos, TX
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Arkansas State✈ 588 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Texas State,
while Game Control favors Arkansas State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Texas State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Arkansas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas State -6
O/U 50.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas State 2022 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Arkansas State vs Grambling | -25.5W58–3 | 57.5 | W58–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Arkansas State at Ohio State | +44.5L12–45 | 68.5 | L12–45 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Arkansas State at Memphis | +14.5L32–44 | 64.0 | L32–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Arkansas State at Old Dominion | +5.0L26–29 | 55.5 | L26–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Arkansas State vs UL Monroe | -7.5W45–28 | 58.5 | W45–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Arkansas State vs James Madison | +11.5L20–42 | 55.0 | L20–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Arkansas State at Southern Miss | +4.5L19–20 | 53.0 | L19–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Arkansas State at Louisiana | +6.0L18–38 | 51.0 | L18–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Arkansas State vs South Alabama | +9.0L3–31 | 52.5 | L3–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/12 | Arkansas State vs Massachusetts | -17.0W35–33 | 49.0 | W35–33 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Arkansas State at Texas State | +6.0L13–16 | 50.0 | L13–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Arkansas State vs Troy | +13.5L19–48 | 43.5 | L19–48 | O | N |
Texas State 2022 Schedule
Texas State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Texas State at Nevada | -2.0L14–38 | 51.5 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Texas State vs Florida International | -13.5W41–12 | 62.5 | W41–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Texas State at Baylor | +30.0L7–42 | 53.0 | L7–42 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Texas State vs Houston Christian | -26.5W34–0 | 65.0 | W34–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Texas State at James Madison | +22.0L13–40 | 51.5 | L13–40 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Texas State vs App State | +19.5W36–24 | 54.5 | W36–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Texas State at Troy | +16.5L14–17 | 47.0 | L14–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Texas State vs Southern Miss | +2.5L14–20 | 43.0 | L14–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Texas State at UL Monroe | +2.5L30–31 | 52.5 | L30–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Texas State at South Alabama | +16.0L21–38 | 46.0 | L21–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Texas State vs Arkansas State | -6.0W16–13 | 50.0 | W16–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Texas State vs Louisiana | +5.0L13–41 | 44.0 | L13–41 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas State Edge
Texas State +0.11
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arkansas State Edge
Arkansas State +4.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas State
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Texas State
44.0 — 31.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Texas State won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
2–10 (17%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Keith Heckendorf
Yr 2
#1
DC
Rob Harley
Yr 2
#1
Texas State
Jake Spavital #1
9–27 (25%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Jake Spavital
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zac Spavital
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓