Sat, Oct 1 2022
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Bridgeforth Stadium
Harrisonburg, VA
·
Turf
·
24,878 cap
Texas State✈ 1,235 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
James Madison
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
James Madison entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
James Madison wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
James Madison wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
James Madison -22
O/U 51.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → James Madison
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Texas State 2022 Schedule
Texas State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Texas State at Nevada | -2.0L14–38 | 51.5 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Texas State vs Florida International | -13.5W41–12 | 62.5 | W41–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Texas State at Baylor | +30.0L7–42 | 53.0 | L7–42 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Texas State vs Houston Christian | -26.5W34–0 | 65.0 | W34–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Texas State at James Madison | +22.0L13–40 | 51.5 | L13–40 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Texas State vs App State | +19.5W36–24 | 54.5 | W36–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Texas State at Troy | +16.5L14–17 | 47.0 | L14–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Texas State vs Southern Miss | +2.5L14–20 | 43.0 | L14–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Texas State at UL Monroe | +2.5L30–31 | 52.5 | L30–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Texas State at South Alabama | +16.0L21–38 | 46.0 | L21–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Texas State vs Arkansas State | -6.0W16–13 | 50.0 | W16–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Texas State vs Louisiana | +5.0L13–41 | 44.0 | L13–41 | O | N |
James Madison 2022 Schedule
James Madison's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | James Madison vs Middle Tennessee | -4.5W44–7 | 60.5 | W44–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | James Madison vs Norfolk State | -41.5W63–7 | 54.5 | W63–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/24 | James Madison at App State | +6.0W32–28 | 57.0 | W32–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | James Madison vs Texas State | -22.0W40–13 | 51.5 | W40–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | James Madison at Arkansas State | -11.5W42–20 | 55.0 | W42–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | James Madison at Georgia Southern | -13.0L38–45 | 68.0 | L38–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | James Madison vs Marshall | -9.5L12–26 | 48.5 | L12–26 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | James Madison at Louisville | +6.5L10–34 | 53.0 | L10–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | James Madison at Old Dominion | -7.5W37–3 | 48.0 | W37–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | James Madison vs Georgia State | -10.0W42–40 | 51.5 | W42–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | James Madison vs Coastal Carolina | -15.5W47–7 | 53.0 | W47–7 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ James Madison
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
James Madison Edge
James Madison +1.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
James Madison Edge
James Madison +21.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
James Madison
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
James Madison
95.9 — 1.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
James Madison won by 27
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on James Madison with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Texas State
Jake Spavital #1
9–27 (25%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Jake Spavital
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zac Spavital
Yr 2
#1
James Madison
Curt Cignetti #1
33–5 (87%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Mike Shanahan
Yr 1
#1
DC
Bryant Haines
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓