Sat, Oct 15 2022
·
Week 7
·
🏟 M. M. Roberts Stadium
Hattiesburg, MS
·
Turf
·
36,000 cap
Arkansas State✈ 321 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Arkansas State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Arkansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Arkansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Arkansas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Southern Mississippi -4.5
O/U 53.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Southern Miss
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas State 2022 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Arkansas State vs Grambling | -25.5W58–3 | 57.5 | W58–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Arkansas State at Ohio State | +44.5L12–45 | 68.5 | L12–45 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Arkansas State at Memphis | +14.5L32–44 | 64.0 | L32–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Arkansas State at Old Dominion | +5.0L26–29 | 55.5 | L26–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Arkansas State vs UL Monroe | -7.5W45–28 | 58.5 | W45–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Arkansas State vs James Madison | +11.5L20–42 | 55.0 | L20–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Arkansas State at Southern Miss | +4.5L19–20 | 53.0 | L19–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Arkansas State at Louisiana | +6.0L18–38 | 51.0 | L18–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Arkansas State vs South Alabama | +9.0L3–31 | 52.5 | L3–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/12 | Arkansas State vs Massachusetts | -17.0W35–33 | 49.0 | W35–33 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Arkansas State at Texas State | +6.0L13–16 | 50.0 | L13–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Arkansas State vs Troy | +13.5L19–48 | 43.5 | L19–48 | O | N |
Southern Miss 2022 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Southern Miss vs Liberty | +3.5L27–29 | 50.0 | L27–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Southern Miss at Miami | +27.5L7–30 | 51.0 | L7–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Southern Miss vs Northwestern State | -32.5W64–10 | 50.5 | W64–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Southern Miss at Tulane | +12.0W27–24 | 48.5 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/8 | Southern Miss at Troy | +7.0L10–27 | 44.0 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Southern Miss vs Arkansas State | -4.5W20–19 | 53.0 | W20–19 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Southern Miss at Texas State | -2.5W20–14 | 43.0 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/27 | Southern Miss vs Louisiana | +2.5W39–24 | 42.5 | W39–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Southern Miss vs Georgia State | -2.0L14–42 | 47.5 | L14–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Southern Miss at Coastal Carolina | +4.5L23–26 | 48.0 | L23–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Southern Miss vs South Alabama | +7.5L20–27 | 45.0 | L20–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Southern Miss at UL Monroe | -3.0W20–10 | 49.5 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/17 | Southern Miss vs Rice | -7.0W38–24 | 46.5 | W38–24 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Southern Miss
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Southern Miss
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Southern Miss
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas State Edge
Arkansas State +0.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arkansas State Edge
Arkansas State +5.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Southern Miss
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Arkansas State
15.6 — 59.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Southern Miss won by 1
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Arkansas State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
2–10 (17%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Keith Heckendorf
Yr 2
#1
DC
Rob Harley
Yr 2
#1
Southern Miss
Will Hall #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Sam Gregg
Yr 1
#1
DC
Austin Armstrong
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓