Sat, Sep 24 2022
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Foreman Field
Norfolk, VA
·
Turf
·
20,118 cap
Arkansas State✈ 801 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Arkansas State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Arkansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Arkansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Arkansas State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Old Dominion -5
O/U 55.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas State 2022 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Arkansas State vs Grambling | -25.5W58–3 | 57.5 | W58–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Arkansas State at Ohio State | +44.5L12–45 | 68.5 | L12–45 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Arkansas State at Memphis | +14.5L32–44 | 64.0 | L32–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Arkansas State at Old Dominion | +5.0L26–29 | 55.5 | L26–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Arkansas State vs UL Monroe | -7.5W45–28 | 58.5 | W45–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Arkansas State vs James Madison | +11.5L20–42 | 55.0 | L20–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Arkansas State at Southern Miss | +4.5L19–20 | 53.0 | L19–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Arkansas State at Louisiana | +6.0L18–38 | 51.0 | L18–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Arkansas State vs South Alabama | +9.0L3–31 | 52.5 | L3–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/12 | Arkansas State vs Massachusetts | -17.0W35–33 | 49.0 | W35–33 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Arkansas State at Texas State | +6.0L13–16 | 50.0 | L13–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Arkansas State vs Troy | +13.5L19–48 | 43.5 | L19–48 | O | N |
Old Dominion 2022 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech | +6.0W20–17 | 48.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Old Dominion at East Carolina | +13.0L21–39 | 49.5 | L21–39 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Old Dominion at Virginia | +8.0L14–16 | 52.5 | L14–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Old Dominion vs Arkansas State | -5.0W29–26 | 55.5 | W29–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Old Dominion vs Liberty | +3.5L24–38 | 48.0 | L24–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina | +11.0W49–21 | 58.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern | -1.5L23–28 | 66.0 | L23–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Old Dominion at Georgia State | +3.5L17–31 | 53.5 | L17–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Old Dominion vs Marshall | +3.5L0–12 | 46.5 | L0–12 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Old Dominion vs James Madison | +7.5L3–37 | 48.0 | L3–37 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Old Dominion at App State | +16.5L14–27 | 50.5 | L14–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Old Dominion at South Alabama | +16.5L20–27 | 47.0 | L20–27 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas State Edge
Arkansas State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arkansas State Edge
Arkansas State +27.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Arkansas State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
2–10 (17%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Keith Heckendorf
Yr 2
#1
DC
Rob Harley
Yr 2
#1
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
6–7 (46%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Dave Patenaude
Yr 1
#1
DC
Blake Seiler
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓