Sat, Sep 10 2022
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
San Marcos, TX
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Florida International✈ 1,108 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Florida International wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas State -13.5
O/U 62.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Florida International 2022 Schedule
Florida International's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Florida International vs Bryant | -10.5W38–37 | 58.5 | W38–37 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Florida International at Texas State | +13.5L12–41 | 62.5 | L12–41 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/24 | Florida International at Western Kentucky | +31.0L0–73 | 65.0 | L0–73 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Florida International at New Mexico State | +15.0W21–7 | 54.0 | W21–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Florida International vs UConn | +5.5L12–33 | 46.5 | L12–33 | U | N |
| Fri 10/14 | Florida International vs UTSA | +33.0L10–30 | 64.0 | L10–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Florida International at Charlotte | +14.0W34–15 | 63.5 | W34–15 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/28 | Florida International vs Louisiana Tech | +6.5W42–34 | 57.0 | W42–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Florida International at North Texas | +21.0L14–52 | 63.5 | L14–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Florida International vs Florida Atlantic | +15.0L7–52 | 54.5 | L7–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Florida International at UTEP | +14.0L6–40 | 50.0 | L6–40 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Florida International vs Middle Tennessee | +19.5L28–33 | 54.5 | L28–33 | O | Y |
Texas State 2022 Schedule
Texas State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Texas State at Nevada | -2.0L14–38 | 51.5 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Texas State vs Florida International | -13.5W41–12 | 62.5 | W41–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Texas State at Baylor | +30.0L7–42 | 53.0 | L7–42 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Texas State vs Houston Christian | -26.5W34–0 | 65.0 | W34–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Texas State at James Madison | +22.0L13–40 | 51.5 | L13–40 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Texas State vs App State | +19.5W36–24 | 54.5 | W36–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Texas State at Troy | +16.5L14–17 | 47.0 | L14–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Texas State vs Southern Miss | +2.5L14–20 | 43.0 | L14–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Texas State at UL Monroe | +2.5L30–31 | 52.5 | L30–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Texas State at South Alabama | +16.0L21–38 | 46.0 | L21–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Texas State vs Arkansas State | -6.0W16–13 | 50.0 | W16–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Texas State vs Louisiana | +5.0L13–41 | 44.0 | L13–41 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida International +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida International Edge
Florida International +12.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas State
1 — 0 sequences
GC Battle
Texas State
82.5 — 8.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Texas State won by 29
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida International
Mike MacIntyre #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
David Yost
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jovan Dewitt
Yr 1
#1
Texas State
Jake Spavital #1
9–27 (25%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Jake Spavital
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zac Spavital
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓