Sat, Sep 3 2022
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Centennial Bank Stadium
Jonesboro, AR
·
Turf
·
30,964 cap
Grambling✈ 257 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Arkansas State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Arkansas State -25.5
O/U 57.5
consensus
Grambling 2022 Schedule
Grambling's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Grambling at Arkansas State | +25.5L3–58 | 57.5 | L3–58 | O | N |
Arkansas State 2022 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Arkansas State vs Grambling | -25.5W58–3 | 57.5 | W58–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Arkansas State at Ohio State | +44.5L12–45 | 68.5 | L12–45 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Arkansas State at Memphis | +14.5L32–44 | 64.0 | L32–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Arkansas State at Old Dominion | +5.0L26–29 | 55.5 | L26–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Arkansas State vs UL Monroe | -7.5W45–28 | 58.5 | W45–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Arkansas State vs James Madison | +11.5L20–42 | 55.0 | L20–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Arkansas State at Southern Miss | +4.5L19–20 | 53.0 | L19–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Arkansas State at Louisiana | +6.0L18–38 | 51.0 | L18–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Arkansas State vs South Alabama | +9.0L3–31 | 52.5 | L3–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/12 | Arkansas State vs Massachusetts | -17.0W35–33 | 49.0 | W35–33 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Arkansas State at Texas State | +6.0L13–16 | 50.0 | L13–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Arkansas State vs Troy | +13.5L19–48 | 43.5 | L19–48 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Grambling Edge
Grambling +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arkansas State Edge
Arkansas State +14.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓