Sat, Oct 8 2022
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Veterans Memorial Stadium
Troy, AL
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Southern Miss✈ 201 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Troy,
while Game Control favors Southern Miss.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Troy wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Southern Miss wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Troy -7
O/U 44.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Southern Miss 2022 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Southern Miss vs Liberty | +3.5L27–29 | 50.0 | L27–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Southern Miss at Miami | +27.5L7–30 | 51.0 | L7–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Southern Miss vs Northwestern State | -32.5W64–10 | 50.5 | W64–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Southern Miss at Tulane | +12.0W27–24 | 48.5 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/8 | Southern Miss at Troy | +7.0L10–27 | 44.0 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Southern Miss vs Arkansas State | -4.5W20–19 | 53.0 | W20–19 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Southern Miss at Texas State | -2.5W20–14 | 43.0 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/27 | Southern Miss vs Louisiana | +2.5W39–24 | 42.5 | W39–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Southern Miss vs Georgia State | -2.0L14–42 | 47.5 | L14–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Southern Miss at Coastal Carolina | +4.5L23–26 | 48.0 | L23–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Southern Miss vs South Alabama | +7.5L20–27 | 45.0 | L20–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Southern Miss at UL Monroe | -3.0W20–10 | 49.5 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/17 | Southern Miss vs Rice | -7.0W38–24 | 46.5 | W38–24 | O | Y |
Troy 2022 Schedule
Troy's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Troy at Ole Miss | +21.5L10–28 | 56.5 | L10–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Troy vs Alabama A&M | -37.5W38–17 | 52.0 | W38–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Troy at App State | +14.0L28–32 | 52.0 | L28–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Troy vs Marshall | +3.0W16–7 | 51.5 | W16–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Troy at Western Kentucky | +5.0W34–27 | 55.0 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Troy vs Southern Miss | -7.0W27–10 | 44.0 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Troy vs Texas State | -16.5W17–14 | 47.0 | W17–14 | U | N |
| Thu 10/20 | Troy at South Alabama | +3.0W10–6 | 47.0 | W10–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Troy at Louisiana | -3.5W23–17 | 42.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Troy vs Army | -8.5W10–9 | 45.5 | W10–9 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Troy vs UL Monroe | -15.0W34–16 | 48.5 | W34–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Troy at Arkansas State | -13.5W48–19 | 43.5 | W48–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | Troy vs Coastal Carolina | -7.0W45–26 | 49.0 | W45–26 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/16 | Troy vs UTSA | -2.0W18–12 | 55.5 | W18–12 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Troy Edge
Troy +0.08
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Southern Miss Edge
Southern Miss +3.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Troy
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Troy
71.3 — 12.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Troy won by 17
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Southern Miss
Will Hall #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Sam Gregg
Yr 1
#1
DC
Austin Armstrong
Yr 2
#1
Troy
Jon Sumrall #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Joe Craddock
Yr 1
#1
DC
Shiel Wood
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓