Sat, Dec 17 2022
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Hancock Whitney Stadium
Mobile, AL
·
Turf
·
25,000 cap
Rice✈ 828 miSame TZ
Southern Miss✈ 634 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Southern Miss
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Southern Miss entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Southern Miss wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Southern Miss wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Southern Mississippi -7.0
O/U 46.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Southern Miss
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Rice 2022 Schedule
Rice's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Rice at USC | +33.0L14–66 | 61.5 | L14–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Rice vs McNeese | -7.5W52–10 | 52.5 | W52–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Rice vs Louisiana | +11.5W33–21 | 52.0 | W33–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Rice at Houston | +17.5L27–34 | 52.5 | L27–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Rice vs UAB | +10.5W28–24 | 51.0 | W28–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | Rice at Florida Atlantic | +5.0L14–17 | 54.5 | L14–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Rice at Louisiana Tech | -3.0W42–41 | 57.0 | W42–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Rice vs Charlotte | -15.0L23–56 | 61.0 | L23–56 | O | N |
| Thu 11/3 | Rice vs UTEP | -3.5W37–30 | 47.0 | W37–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Rice at Western Kentucky | +13.5L10–45 | 61.0 | L10–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Rice vs UTSA | +14.0L7–41 | 56.0 | L7–41 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Rice at North Texas | +14.5L17–21 | 57.0 | L17–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/17 | Rice vs Southern Miss | +7.0L24–38 | 46.5 | L24–38 | O | N |
Southern Miss 2022 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Southern Miss vs Liberty | +3.5L27–29 | 50.0 | L27–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Southern Miss at Miami | +27.5L7–30 | 51.0 | L7–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Southern Miss vs Northwestern State | -32.5W64–10 | 50.5 | W64–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Southern Miss at Tulane | +12.0W27–24 | 48.5 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/8 | Southern Miss at Troy | +7.0L10–27 | 44.0 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Southern Miss vs Arkansas State | -4.5W20–19 | 53.0 | W20–19 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Southern Miss at Texas State | -2.5W20–14 | 43.0 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/27 | Southern Miss vs Louisiana | +2.5W39–24 | 42.5 | W39–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Southern Miss vs Georgia State | -2.0L14–42 | 47.5 | L14–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Southern Miss at Coastal Carolina | +4.5L23–26 | 48.0 | L23–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Southern Miss vs South Alabama | +7.5L20–27 | 45.0 | L20–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Southern Miss at UL Monroe | -3.0W20–10 | 49.5 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/17 | Southern Miss vs Rice | -7.0W38–24 | 46.5 | W38–24 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Southern Miss
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Southern Miss
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Southern Miss
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Southern Miss Edge
Southern Miss +0.45
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Southern Miss Edge
Southern Miss +10.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Rice
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Southern Miss
76.6 — 9.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Southern Miss won by 14
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Southern Miss. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Rice
Mike Bloomgren #1
11–31 (26%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Marques Tuiasosopo
Yr 2
#1
DC
Brian Smith
Yr 2
#1
Southern Miss
Will Hall #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Sam Gregg
Yr 1
#1
DC
Austin Armstrong
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓