Sat, Nov 19 2022
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Kidd Brewer Stadium
Boone, NC
·
Turf
·
24,050 cap
Old Dominion✈ 302 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
App State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
App State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
App State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
App State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Appalachian State -16.5
O/U 50.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → App State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Old Dominion 2022 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech | +6.0W20–17 | 48.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Old Dominion at East Carolina | +13.0L21–39 | 49.5 | L21–39 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Old Dominion at Virginia | +8.0L14–16 | 52.5 | L14–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Old Dominion vs Arkansas State | -5.0W29–26 | 55.5 | W29–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Old Dominion vs Liberty | +3.5L24–38 | 48.0 | L24–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina | +11.0W49–21 | 58.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern | -1.5L23–28 | 66.0 | L23–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Old Dominion at Georgia State | +3.5L17–31 | 53.5 | L17–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Old Dominion vs Marshall | +3.5L0–12 | 46.5 | L0–12 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Old Dominion vs James Madison | +7.5L3–37 | 48.0 | L3–37 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Old Dominion at App State | +16.5L14–27 | 50.5 | L14–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Old Dominion at South Alabama | +16.5L20–27 | 47.0 | L20–27 | U | Y |
App State 2022 Schedule
App State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | App State vs North Carolina | -3.0L61–63 | 56.0 | L61–63 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | App State at Texas A&M | +18.0W17–14 | 54.0 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | App State vs Troy | -14.0W32–28 | 52.0 | W32–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | App State vs James Madison | -6.0L28–32 | 57.0 | L28–32 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | App State vs The Citadel | -39.0W49–0 | 54.5 | W49–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | App State at Texas State | -19.5L24–36 | 54.5 | L24–36 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/19 | App State vs Georgia State | -9.5W42–17 | 60.5 | W42–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | App State vs Robert Morris | -50.0W42–3 | 59.5 | W42–3 | U | N |
| Thu 11/3 | App State at Coastal Carolina | -3.0L28–35 | 65.5 | L28–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | App State at Marshall | -2.0L21–28 | 47.5 | L21–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | App State vs Old Dominion | -16.5W27–14 | 50.5 | W27–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | App State at Georgia Southern | -6.5L48–51 | 66.0 | L48–51 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ App State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
App State Edge
App State +0.93
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
App State Edge
App State +32.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
App State
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
App State
96.7 — 1.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
App State won by 13
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on App State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
6–7 (46%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Dave Patenaude
Yr 1
#1
DC
Blake Seiler
Yr 2
#1
App State
Shawn Clark #1
20–7 (74%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Kevin Barbay
Yr 1
#1
DC
Dale Jones
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓